As you may recall, a recent predictive analysis/forecasting was released for this same NZDJPY pair, pertaining to a higher timeframe (4-hour - See link below).
Fundamental analysis remains intact here regarding the NZD.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
Looking at the internal activity of the aforementioned 4-Hour chart, I applied the predictive/forecasting model to define a high-probable level of reversal.
That level is currently defined as:
- TG-Hi = 93.661 - 23 DEC 2014.
If and once this level controls price, one shuold shift back to the higher timeframe (4-hour chart0, which remains the controlling frame for this pair at the moment,
FIBONACCI RELEVANCE:
A Fibonacci matrix is overlaid here, but lends no clear alignment with any forecast level of support. Instead, the structural level defined at 91.611 should offer a temporary support IF and once price adopts a bearish tack.
ELLIOTT WAVE RELEVANCE:
The dominant price action remains that of a complex internal zig-zags, one at a higher-degree (in purple) defined by a pending w-x-y-xx-(z) and a lesser-degree 1-2-3-4-(5) impulse, both of which hold a high-probability of corroborating with the predictive/forecasting model's target at 93.611.
This apical level would possibly complete a over-throw at Point-e, satisfying a bearish Ending Diagonal requirement.
OVERALL:
The original chart of interest rests at the 4-hour level. However, this 1-hour timefarme offers a chance to calibrate a reversal level in support of the predictive/forecasting analysis effected in the H4 level, which sees a dominant bearish control in price.
INVALIDATION:
The analysis should be considered invalid IF and once price commits to a level higher than Point-W = 93.968.
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
ADDENDUM - A Wolfe Waves Pattern overlay with a 2-4 Line projection off of point-3 would offer the advanced pattern trader a guideline to define a upper geometric border. However, price action defining the WW (or the EW's ED for that matter) is NOT required to validate the 1-3 Line to define the 5th point (Point-e in the EW's ED, or Point-5 in WW).
For this reason, I would keep an eye on Point-4 of the WW (see chart below) as a conservative threshold defining whether price is done ascending
The M60 forecast completed - Moving the analysis back to the original H4 level - See link below for most recent tech-note:
- tradingview.com/v/sN1yQsea/
David Alcindor