I sold last Friday after a failure at the 83.20 level.
My first target to B/E is ~80.
Here is my framework on how I think through a trade.
Is this trade worth taking?
* Where is the R/R right now? Is it obvious?
* Is the market trending or ranging in the time frame you are watching?
* Is price currently at a level that is obvious to all market participants? Remember, it is their orders that will push your trade to profit or loss. What are other traders seeing?
* What is the price action? Is it obvious?
* What would you regret more, passing on the trade and watching it go for 100's of pips without you, or losing a small % of your account?
* In my experience, mistakes of omission are far more painful than mistakes of commission.
After thinking through these questions, is this a trade you would like execute?
"With intelligent estimations, we can work to get the rough order of magnitude right, understand the consequences if we’re wrong, and always be sure to never fool ourselves after the fact."
Questions, comments? please leave below. Have a good day.