4xForecaster

Late Entry: $NZD vs. $JPY: Predictive Analysis/Forecast #forex

Short
FX:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen
Traders,

Sorry for this late entry. Analysis originates from early December - Please, ignore TG-1 hit to keep it honest.

Here is what I posted as a retrospective commentary on the "Predictive Analysis?Forecasting" chatroom today - I hope this makes things right by you:

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* * * 10 DEC 2014 * * * - H4:I thought I saved this chart as a preliminary study on December 02nd, 2014, when I built the chart. However, I cannot locate the chart in TradingView. Please, ignore the dates on the chart, as it may give the impression that I defined the targets after the fact. My apologies on that. Still, the analysis/forecasting is genuine and original.Analysis should have included a comment on NZD expected decline based on bearish dairy news and sovereign central bank action towards keeping or decreasing rates (very bearish for NZD) versus recent analysis on the and $ES revealing a probable reversal - It hit target since then and rolled quite drastically. The NET effect on should be a cantilevered force to the downside on the pair. David Alcindor
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(Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst... )

In any case, the primary target was easily identifiable by its relation to Fibonacci's 1.414 and 1.618 extensions following completion of 5th wave.

Price has since reversed to the projection of a lower bullish trendline born out of Point-4 and the next higher low point.

For fundamental reasons stated above, the market is likely to maintain bearish pressure at these levels.

On technical grounds, I would look for the failure of 91.810 as an early indication of further softening of bullish ground, thus opening up to the following bearish targets:

1 - TG-1 = 90.796 - 02 DEC 2014 (done already, but likely to impose a R/S effect on price action)

2 - TG-2 = 80.517 - 02 DEC 2014

3 - TG-Lo - 87.662 - 02 DEC 2014

and

4 - TG-x - 84.787 - 02 DEC 2014

Numerical targets carry a higher prop value, in contrast to nominal targets. However, numerical targets only impose shallow Fibonacci retracement , whereas nominal targets are high-prob reversal 9i.e.: minimum of 0.618+)

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

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