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Late Entry: $NZD vs. $JPY: Predictive Analysis/Forecast #forex

FX:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen
605 14 6
Traders,

Sorry for this late entry. Analysis originates from early December - Please, ignore TG-1 hit to keep it honest.

Here is what I posted as a retrospective commentary on the "Predictive Analysis?Forecasting" chatroom today - I hope this makes things right by you:

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* * * 10 DEC             2014 * * * - H4:I thought I saved this chart as a preliminary study on December 02nd, 2014, when I built the chart. However, I cannot locate the chart in TradingView. Please, ignore the dates on the chart, as it may give the impression that I defined the targets after the fact. My apologies on that. Still, the analysis/forecasting is genuine and original.Analysis should have included a comment on NZD expected decline based on bearish dairy news and sovereign central bank action towards keeping or decreasing rates (very bearish for NZD) versus recent analysis on the and $ES revealing a probable reversal - It hit target since then and rolled quite drastically. The NET effect on should be a cantilevered force to the downside on the pair. David Alcindor
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(Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO )

In any case, the primary target was easily identifiable by its relation to Fibonacci's 1.414 and 1.618 extensions following completion of 5th wave.

Price has since reversed to the projection of a lower bullish trendline born out of Point-4 and the next higher low point.

For fundamental reasons stated above, the market is likely to maintain bearish pressure at these levels.

On technical grounds, I would look for the failure of 91.810 as an early indication of further softening of bullish ground, thus opening up to the following bearish targets:

1 - TG-1 = 90.796 - 02 DEC             2014 (done already, but likely to impose a R/S effect on price action)

2 - TG-2 = 80.517 - 02 DEC             2014

3 - TG-Lo - 87.662 - 02 DEC             2014

and

4 - TG-x - 84.787 - 02 DEC             2014

Numerical targets carry a higher prop value, in contrast to nominal targets. However, numerical targets only impose shallow Fibonacci retracement, whereas nominal targets are high-prob reversal 9i.e.: minimum of 0.618+)

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
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How do you feel about the surprise rates decision David? Is this a carry trade unwind in a large scale?
Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Hello @IvanLabrie - What source are you using regarding any rate? What country are you referring to?

Most recent rate changes for this pair that would impact chart are:

$NZD New = 3.500 % Prior = 3.250 % Date changed = 07-24-2014

$JPY New = 0.100 % Prior = 0.100 % Date changed = 10-05-2010

$USD New = 0.250 % Prior = 1.000 % Date changed = 12-16-2008

(Sources: http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx )

There has not been any new posted rates for these countries. In December, only Brazil, Iceland and Trinidad/Tobago have released new rates.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
There were rumors about them cutting rates possibly, as far as I know. (NZD)
So the carry trade is still attractive, on a rate differential base at least.
http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event.aspx?id=af0112f8-5b85-4b01-84cc-bd4b13f1e9d0
Reply
15 DEC 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY revisits prior hit forecast; Eyes bearish target beneath:

snapshot


via @tradingview $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
19 DEC 2014 - Quick Note:

Price reacted back to predefined bullish trendline following a hit at TG-1. Currently, price got stomped at this trendline underbelly. This validation, combined with current consolidation, supports bearish reversal.

Floor remains open to subsequent bearish targets at TG-2, TG-Lo and TG-x.

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
05 DEC 2015 - Update;

Just posted on the 4-hour chart:

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From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY nears 91.611 target; Interim recoil likely to 92.681 before landing on target:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
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David
+1 Reply
08 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY weaves a WW pattern; Bearish targets intact and in force:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ $USD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
The TG-2 should be amended to 89.517, i suppose.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Central bank rates:

$NZD - New Zealand: 3.500 % from 3.250 % on 07-24-2014

versus

$JPY - Japan: 0.100 % from 0.100 % on 10-05-2010


This wide rate differential fueled the bullish swing. However, a lot of contrarian fundamental events have occurred since last rate change implementation (July 2014 in the $NZD):

1 - Oil price joined gold pan-deflationary in commodity prices (NZD may have benefited from decline in export costs per oil, but falls under bearish pressure from gold)
2 - China succumbed to deflationary and slump in worldwide market demand plus an internal economical depression (this is likely to bear down on demand for NZD farm products)
3 - Dairy price fell significantly until recently. However, this may represent a technical bounce, since the fundamental issues in China and Asian theater remain in place
4 - Japan experiencing a QE-like boost in oil price decline (as a major net energy imported)


As all these fundamental factors play out, the technical picture is resolving a possible WW vs. EW's ED.

The geometry for WW or ED allows for either a Point-5 failure (i.e.: price would fail to validate the 1-3 Line), as well as a significant overshoot of the 1-3 Line. Considering the resolving issues that shape this pair, I would recommend waiting for a significant event, such as a rate decision, before expressing a directional bias, although the model remains bearish.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
16 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY completed full WW cycle; Original bearish targets remain intact and in force:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
21 JAN 2015 - Update: TARGET HIT

From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY hit second forecast defined 02 DEC 2014; Opens floor to abysmal TG-Lo, TG-Lox:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY #BOJ
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
22 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY - After hitting both numerical targets, pair mulls slight KoD recovery:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY #BOJ #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor

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*KoD = "Kiss of Death"

Look for a a second parabolic completion reverting to the base of the first, smaller parabola - This pattern points to a high reversibility potential IF and once price does revisits the base level of the smaller parabola.

David
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+1 Reply
23 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY hit 87.662 target; Reactive bounce into KoD pattern completion likely:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
26 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY hit all targets; Price may now reach 91.597 to complete a KoD:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
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