Each pair of currencies has it's own personality. In the case of NZDUSD , one of it's traits is that it trends very well. Keeping that in mind, this pair has been on a solid down trend for weeks now. It has been trending in a very tight channel as well. So is it time for some kind of retrace or reversal? Read on and find out what my analysis reveals.
Reversal? Simple answer: NO! Possible short retrace before resuming it's solid march down: YES! The questions are:
1. When and where will the retrace begin?
2.How far up will the retrace go?
3. And how will it unfold?
I can't tell you the future but I can analyze the present and try to anticipate though. From the current PA, I have identified 3 . It's important to note that all 3 are TREND CONTINUATION patterns. If you are a trend trader, you should be licking your chops! And going back to what I said about the trending nature of this pair, I'd say the likelihood of the trend continuing is probably pretty good.
1. The - this one has already been completed and as of this post, prices are working it' way up towards the TP1 of the pattern. Should easily make it there and possibly TP2 as well.
2. The - If prices should work it's way up to the upper of the channel, then chances are that this Bat will be completed. After it does, it would be a pretty good spot to take or add SHORT positions.
3. The - Now, if prices were to make it all the way out to this , well, then that is a very clear indication that prices are in a retracement as they would have clearly and decisively broken the channel. If this happens, I'd be looking for some kind of chart pattern such as a to form and look to get SHORT
So why am I so on this pair? Take a look at the MONTHLY chart below. As you can see, I've drawn in a very large POTENTIAL pattern that would complete right down at/near some minor SR structure and also the .886 retrace of the ENTIRE move up. But I am not expecting a completely smooth ride all the way down now. As you can see, along the way there are several fib confluent points where some kind of retrace could happen. That's not saying it CAN'T do a straight drop. It can and it has. Several times before! But is it going to drop all the way down to complete the just because I drew one in? Of course not! I don't have that kind of influence! BUT, the BAMM principle is in play. If you are not familiar with the BAMM principle, I've linked to a very good explanation of it to one of the great posters here who explained it and is currently a very active user of this principle (see Related Ideas: "THOUGHTS ABOUT . SOME TIPS AND SECRETS. PART VII"). The BAMM Principle was also discovered by Scott Carney. But in a nutshell, it says that once prices have exceeded the B point of a , the tendency is for that pattern to complete it's CD leg.
Pretty self-explanatory. Clear as a bell channel!
I am VERY on this pair and am ONLY LOOKING FOR SHORT positions! Because the trend is so strong along with knowing this pair likes to trend, although I am expecting some kind of retrace, I believe it would be penny-wise but pound foolish to counter trend trade this pair right now. If you take a LONG position looking to try to bag a few pips on the retrace, you could easily find yourself on the wrong side of the tracks and about to get run over by the freight train! BE CAREFUL! I've read more than a few times here where some posters were calling the bottom of the trend just
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