NZD/USD: possible entry for a short?

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
354 5 5
This pair is already highly oversold but I do suspect it will go up a bit more. So on smaller timeframes I might still look for some long opportunities...

If we don't get a considerable retracement soon and we go straight up from here then I will surely be looking to short this pair at the 50% retracement of the last big move down. Especially since we could see confluence with a possible test of the "down" trendline!

Initial SL above the 61.8 fib level but that could be adjusted very quickly. If we see a good drawback from the trendline and/or 50% fib level then SL can be tightened with the trendline as a guide.

3 possible targets are on the chart, I would be looking to take 50% at TP1, 30 at TP2, 20 at TP3.

If we get a big retracement before we get to the 50% level than I will cancel my sell orders.
Set up looks good KVE !
KVE jal811
Tnx! It's wait and see now!
i do have a question about AUDUSD and NZDUSD.... they correlate very well together. almost exactly the same. so if NZ decides to go up (my chart looks just like yours) wouldn't AUD have the potential to move the same way? thank you.
KVE LPlady91
I think they were highly correlated for the last week because of general dollar weakness.
Between NZD and AUD the NZD has been outperforming AUD for a month now!
So you are correct I think but it would for instance also be possible for NZDUSD to rally further while AUDUSD ranges for a while (gap between AUDUSD and NZDUSD would widen) and then they both fall for instance because of a dollar related fact... In any case dollar strength or weakness will have the most influence on these two so when dollar makes considerable moves then the correlation between NU and AU will be better of course...
This chart should explain the current situation:
+1 Reply
makes perfect sense. thank you!
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