We have had an uptrend with higher lows and higher highs and then we began to range indicating an exhaustion of the trend.
I am waiting for a confirmed lower high here. This means we may see a pullback like we are now before eventually breaking below recent lows here at 0.6370.
If we do break and close thereby confirming the lower high, I would target the 0.6300 zone.
With the long downtrend it is hard for a good reversal move to hold, though your analysis was a good possibility. The move was only about 35% retracement indicating to me of weak buying. But looking at the current setup (9/24), there was a solid break though of the 240 min trend line so it may be time for a better move higher. The MACD 240 min is starting to show good divergence and the last move up was pretty solid so there are likely starting to be buyers coming into the market. The daily macd is screaming divergence to buy. This could be one of the "pull back to the trend line moves" before heading up. Certainly worth watching closely.
Uncharted-FX
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@nuttydave, Yup so NZDUSD already hit my take profit last week! We took out profits. And yes, it is now at a big support zone so we would look for a reversal here after the long downtrend! Will definitely keep an eye on this one!