All Targets Hit - Potential Reversal Pending | $NZD #RBNZ #forex

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar

On March 28th, I defined three distinct targets, all of which have been hit. The most recent target remained pending on last analysis (see it here: ), when TG-3 = 0.88099 was overing a few pips above and fundamentals were waivering (milk prices were pointing down while RBNZ was talking about increasing its rate).

At this point, TG-3 has been hit dead-on and price rolled over half of the most recent bullish impulse, suggesting a potential strengthening among bears.

The predictive /forecasting model that helped defined all targets remains bullish , but I would caution against too much optimism at this point. Fundamentals aside, investors and institutional bankers have started to short this pair, so expect added downward pressure.

0.84013 could be used as a structural mark if the model (i.e.: algo signals) remains equivocal. As you may recall, all targets defined by numbers have a higher probability of getting hit, while all targets defined as TG-Hi or TG-Lo (referring to highest/lowest possible price excursion), carry a lesser probability of getting hit, but IF and once price reach these levels, they often act as reversal levels.

So far, all numerical targets (i.e.: TG-1, 2, and 3) have been hit, and TG-Hi remains perched at a loft 0.94565 value. I would want to see a break-above, close-above 0.88345 before looking at TG-Hi as a feasible ascent.


In light of mounting institutional downward pressures and fundamental deterioration of commodities pricing, the bullish technical picture would carry less weight than current real-world developments. However, the model remains bullish . In the face of such analytical divergence, I will leave the directional indicator as "Neutral", until all elements line up, or price action attains the levels defined above.


David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

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