ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Long

Pending Long NZD/USD in 0.843X/0.839X region

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
227 22 1
Since my sell region of high 0.85XX hasn't been reached yet, there's a possibility to get a long entry on this pullback when price hits the 0.843X/0.839X region.
Target 1: 0.8522 (today's high)
Target 2: high 0.85XX region (weekly downward trend line), refer to my other analysis on NZD/USD             .
Considering there are multiple trend lines in play, risk is up to your tolerance.

Update: Another potential level is the 0.835X region, which coincides with the 3rd trend line.

Update: At this point, I think it's safe to say that price is already bouncing and the trade is now void? Price is moving up towards Friday's highs as we speak. I only filled 15% of my long position (0.8445) when price hit the first trend line yesterday. Anyone else get a position?
ForceFollower
2 years ago
Totally agree. Very much like my strategy and exactly what I'm going to do next week. :-)
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Update: Another potential level is the 0.835X region, which coincides with the 3rd trend line.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Sure, you can't tell well in advance which trend line will hold, and which one is going to fail. You just stalk it and watch the ongoing price action for clues. Usually the best entry is as close to some prior swing low as possible. This tactic would favour your trend line of the most gentle slope. However, the steeper ones offer a chance of the third test, which quite often is a good place for price to bounce and for the trend to resume...
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Two ways to load:

1. Wait for confirmation (ensures lowest risk possibility)
2. Load at all 3 regions with equal portions (ensures you have a sizeable position if price turns at any point)
3. Load at all 3 regions with progressively higher parts as price moves down. (ensures the majority of your position is closer to the bottom)

I'm opting for option #3. Splitting up the trade, possible entry can be split into 1,2,3 parts (16.7% initially then increasing it by n+1) or 1,2,4 parts (14.3% initially then increasing it by 2n).
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I'm glad you don't mean adding to a loser, because this would be a practice unworthy of our profession. One way to avoid such a practice that I sometimes apply is taking a loss (on the first trade) once I get filled with another (the second) buy limit order. And the second trade usually helps me recover from the previous loss and makes a profit.

However, I know you mean incremental adding partial risk to your position, so at the lowest entry point you have accumulated the full predefined risk R (say: 0.2R+0.3R+0.5R=1.0R). You probably also mean a common SL level for all of the three trades. In that case, there's no adding to a loss, it's safe and sound: you've got no loss, no violation of rules - the only problem being having a too-small position in case of the trend resumption straight off the first entry point.

So, you're left with a trade-off between a high chance of loss and profit on a small position. But there are also other solutions, as you can merge them both, like eg. enter small, risk litlle on start, allow for a stop-out before the second entry and introduce adding to your small position, when in profit.
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If I were to assign probabilities for each trend line holding, it would be split as follows:
0.843X: 10% (this trend line is based on price action from a gap opening)
0.839X: 30% (longer term trend line, also the 3rd bounce)
0.835X: 60% (re: ForceFollower, this is the best entry since it's closest to the previous lows, also it's the month open price as well)

(Don't confuse this for my last comment regarding position size percentages)
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I agree.
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Update: At this point, I think it's safe to say that price is already bouncing and the trade is now void? Price is moving up towards Friday's highs as we speak. I only filled 15% of my long position (0.8445) when price hit the first trend line yesterday. Anyone else get a position?
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I admit I entered full at the first line and took profit at the alternate high, just below 0.85.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Good Job. I'm still holding mine, I have a 25 pip trailing stop loss if it does retrace but ideally, I'd like to TP at my pending short region of high 0.85XX.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I'll be looking to go long again. I'm still holding my long position in NZDCAD though.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
My long got stopped out at 80, +35 pips. H4 candle just closed, shooting star pinbar, might give an opportunity to short in on a retrace to the top end of wick.

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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Yes, it should go down now, so you should be good. I actually don't trade this pair short, so I'm flat, waiting lower for another buy setup.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
I shorted 20% of my position at 0.8495 (50% of the H4 wick), just closed it at 0.8475 for 20 pips. It's close to that first trend line, which may very well break since it's the 4th bounce and it's so steep at this point but like you, I'd rather have a long position pending RBNZ interest rate announcement tomorrow.
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Looks like price is building a base above 0.844X, look at all those lower wicks...
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Yes, a good eye. I may reenter long on some dip.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Be careful about the possible descending triangle though:
NZDUSD Short Term Support Region (0.844X/5X)
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itaskar ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
yea, thats why i am not in, in my opinion there will be retest of the daily pennant, it correspond with your lowest trendline
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I like those guys in your green box. But I am careful. The stops are in place. :-) And the Aussie sometimes nicely correlates with Kiwi... And it's on our side now.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
For the record, I don't have a position on this pair. I'm focusing more on AUD/USD, I'm just updating this analysis for you guys.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Thanks for your honesty. When you're flat, your judgment is perhaps even more objective than you'd like it to be. :-) I appreciate your comment whether you're in or out.
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I'm getting ready to start loading shorts soon, so for you bulls out there, set some stops to lock in profits or consider exiting soon. Once I start shorting, I'll be commenting on my Short NZD/USD Analysis chart not this one.
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