justatrader

NZDUSD - Possible retracement to 0.83173

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Kiwi took a beating along with Aussie during the week. China's PMI might have provided some temporary relief but technical resistance at 0.8613 is likely to push Kiwi down to retest 0.83173 region which was past resistance which gave way, but was not tested for support. This retracement should provide a good opp             . to long the pair again. The final target comes in at 0.9

Above set up offers a small counter trend trade if the high of 0.86944 is untouched targeting 0.84.
Both of you have almost the same ML set up....
A bit off topic, but reg. median lines. Do you guys notice how price often reacts to the mid-point price level (mid point of Swing High & Swing Low.. or points 2 and 3 of the ML)? I look at it as a confirmation of continuation of the short term trend. Don't see much written about it.
+1 Reply
ForceFollower justatrader
Thumb up! The mid-points are key levels in many regards; both in internal retracements and in alternate price projections.
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justatrader ForceFollower
So i'm not the only crazy one then ;) SSssshhhhhh.... secret!!!
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Here's how I see it:

+2 Reply
itaskar ForceFollower
I agree, have got something similar
+2 Reply
I am more bullish about the AUD than NZD. But I dare go long AUD only against the CHF. I wouldn't try it against the USD. Anyway, the best short on NZD seems to be against the CAD and the GBP.
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I find the NZD relatively weak now. I think it's quite likely we'll see price go down to your green range. But first, all those lows to the left have to give way. When they do, next thing you know is price testing the this very range. :)
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justatrader ForceFollower
Yep, waiting for a pinbar or a touch n'go at 8613... the down move kind of gives me more impetus to expect something at that level. But considering Kiwi shorts have -ve swaps, i'm gonna let this one go down as a study. Will wait for 83 - 84 levels to long from.
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After better than expected CN data,,, you prescribed short. Hummm ....
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Funny thing about AUD and NZD is both their central banks don't like a higher exchange rate. They talk it down at every possible opportunity and the currencies fall only to be lifted by positive China data. So if one trades by fundamentals it would go something like buy/sell/buy/sell..

I personally wouldn't trade NZDUSD short because its counter trend but some people like to (esp. intra day traders). Also the recent high of 0.86944 must hold if any short trade is to take place. If you look at RSI, it is pointing up above the 40 level which is bullish, but there is resistance at 52 level. There's also a medium term divergence to RSI that points a correction to 0.83627.

Just like you, i'm curious how the chart will unfold given the positive data from China. Let's see.. weekly unemployment claims and housing data due today.
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