NZD / USD - Rise then fall - SELL

OANDA:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Long term down trend remains in tact with the resistance zone @0.6850. Price is still yet to close above the bearish Pin Bar signal that formed early July, a sign the market could still sell off further & way earlier than pulling back to the resistance zone , so it's important to watch this one for the first sign of a pullback and rejection in order to get in. Quite the fall below us once we get past 0.67.

Fundamentally, we've seen huge downside to the Chinese Yuan due to tarrifs on China, and this impacts the Kiwi and Aussie market, the Kiwi always hit more by a sentiment change than the Aussie which is backed up by other stronger commodities , although right now Gold , Crude, Iron Ore, Copper etc are bearish , which is not helping. We already know the US$ numbers are showing strong upside and with increased interest rates, pushing investors to run there for cover, the DXY still has a long climb back to the 95.5 highs, the ZXY in comparison has a long way to fall.

If we get positive numbers out of the US$, non-farm payroll PMI this week, we'll certainly see a move below or touching 0.67. I'm trade active from yesterday.
Comment: The long term view shows why this is looking like a logical trade, the location near the lows however, does warrant some pullback to get into a better position.

Comment: You can see where I've already sold this trade twice before, ascending wedge, descending trade ... long term bear.
Comment: Zoom in on the weekly candles supporting a sell trade with stops above the pin bar.

Comment: Trade execution potentially 5 - 10 days.
Comment: Another beautiful trade on this pair, will we break out of the wedge this week, maybe not, it's still going down at some point, right now, lovely profit so far

Comment: We have broken the trend line and continue to fall, this could be a very good trade
Comment: We have non-farm payroll today and some reasonable metrics that will impact the markets across the board, so an interesting first Friday of the month, currently I have an incredible portfolio of very profitable trades right now, check out my ideas, June and July was my biggest periods ever, but least amount of trades.

I've traded this pair on and off now for a few months, as well as GBP / Kiwi, my most profitable trade of the year at over 1000 pips. The Kiwi is being seriously impacted by China and poor Aussie numbers from Commodities.

Be very aware of your entries this morning, in early, out early today, unless you have some excellent positions that can handle being held over the weekend, I certainly do, I've held some trades for over a month.

You can see the Kiwi is mirroring the US$ here, but that makes no difference unless they cross, it's the weaker currency and will remain so unless NFP comes in negative.

On the weekly chart shows the pair is reaching the low of the range, a positive NFP could cause a breakout and if so, 0.64 is on the card in a week or two. Until then, I'm watching for 0.65
Trade closed manually: Took a small profit, wait for it to go back-up
Comment: Looking for a pullback to the trend line on this pair or hold beyond it to buy back-up to 113.

Comment: We broke the trend line on this, I was wrong on the NFP call and should have stayed in the trade. Waiting for a re-entry

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