The higher time frames show a clear consolidation and as a result of that only 2 major structure lines are significant. All other lines you draw can be used but are not significant in this trading environment of RBNZ about to cut their rates again.
The technical's supports this and that makes this pair great for trading.
I made a brief comment about the housing market in my AUDNZD post. The impulse in NZDUSD was a result of this expectation and confirmation. The technical's supported this move also and when fundamentals and technical's line up we need to be focused. Fundamentals do matter but you need to understand how to read them. The difference between qualitative and quantitative data is key. (I will elaborate on this on my website where we analyze each pair top down, technical's, fundamentals and market dynamic)
But as always we can analyze all we want, trading is a game of probability and we need to keep an open mind at all times. So what am I looking for?
The 1 hour time frame shows a clear impulse which might already be over. I showed a possible wave 1 OR A lower. The reason is simple, although I explained I expect more price action to be next, I don't have a crystal ball and therefore can never be sure.
In both cases however we should see a third leg lower. I will therefore be looking for a 3 wave correction before considering another sell.
And as always the only risk is missing a trade.
Updates will follow.
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