Kiwi: commodity currency. What we knew about Kiwi last week: that was a drop in CPI . NZ CPI dropped to 1.5% from 1.6%; Kiwi responded to this drop by falling down to 0.856 key . This is a strong support according to Nine.
Next week, all eyes of investors will pay attention in RBNZ decision. Most forecasters expect RBNZ will hike rate by 25bp to 3%.
We know that in the recent rate hike, RBNZ confirmed that they will hike rate gradually, and the will be stable at the peak 4.75% by 2016. We still have 14 RBNZ Meetings from now to end of 2015. 4.75%-2.75%= 2%; It means we need 8 times of rate hike: 8 times in 14 Meetings. To RBNZ hikes rate, we need pickup in . The of RBNZ is to keep from 1% to 3%, and they still have a lot of room for this target; CPI is now at 1.5%. In my opinion, I hold my viewpoint that RBNZ would not hike rate this Minutes.
- Technical Analysis:
23.6% Fib retracement was pierced; the next target is 38.2% Fib retracement at 0.8478
Channel: I see a SELL signal clearly.
I keep the Short Position to 0.85 psychological level. Stop Loss at 0.866
If RBNZ hikes rate, trend reverses, I will close my Short position to Long N/Z
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