4xForecaster

#Kiwi Moves Hit TG-2 Target; Ignored TG-Hi | #Forex $NZD $USD

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
829 13 9
Friends,


SECONDARY TARGET HIT:

$NZD moved straight to TG-2 = 0.7866 - 10 SEP 2014 after hitting primary target TG-1 at market close. This occurred against a low-probability qualitative target, namely TG-Hi = 0.84838 - 10 SEP 2014, which set the expectation of a price reversal from that level.

Instead, a quantitative-target was hit one after the other, bringing RSI to historically taut levels with it. As qualitative targets suggest, a 0.382 to 0.618 reversal is expected at this point, the maximum of this range would allow price to return to TG-Hi above.


SHARK TO 5-0?

Pattern trader are likely to recognize a Bullish Shark completion at the current level. TradingView.com data goes back to 1993, a period over which RSI never dipped as low as it currently reached.

Both Shark and 5-0 patterns are Scott Carney's discoveries, and can be reviewed under his site at http://www.HarmonicTrading.com - Shark's acolyte is a 5-0 pattern, which demand a 50% reversal from recent downswing.


OVERALL:

Primary and secondary targets have been hit. This contradicted n interim forecast where price was expected to rally to TG-Hi first, before reversing to TG-2. At this point, expect a moderate probability of a RETRACEMENT in the 0.382 to 0.618 range, and a low-probability REVERSAL to TG-Hi.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Hi david
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Reply
15 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDUSD reversed from 0.618 #fibonacci forecast; Readies for bullish entrenchment:

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@tradingview $NZD $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
Reply
10 DEC 2014 - Fundamental News:


"New Zealand holds rate, sees further rise "at later stage"

Source: CentralBankNews.info
Link: http://dlvr.it/7nQvN5%22


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
02 DEC 2014 - Update:

Another downer for $NZD: Milk price fall for a third consecutive times. This is viewed as a $NZD bearish fundamental event, as it negatively impact the export revenue of the country:


$NZDUSD = Bearish
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$AUDNZD = Bullish
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
27 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDUSD Bearish - Weakness in $NZD would certainly help our lofty $AUDNZD forecast:

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@tradingview $NZD $USD $forex
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David Alcindor
Reply
22 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDUSD - An #elliottwave Flat remains expected (A-B-C) near 0.79926 before bearish resumption:

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@tradingview $NZD
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David Alcindor
Reply
20 NOV 2014 - FUNDAMENTAL UPDATE:


* * * Major Bank FX Positions in $NZDUSD * * *


L/T: none

M/T:
- Short: 2
- Long: 0

S/T:
- Short: 2
- Long: 0


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
28 OCT 2014 - Update:

Most major institutional banks have recently shorted and consequently have been stopped out of their bearish positions. As indicated in original analysis, the expectation here is for price to offer an interim rallying into a standard 0.50-Fib or even 0.618-Fib retracement. A 50% retracement would complete Scott Carney's Bullish Shark, and link its completion into the same author's 5-0 Pattern - These values can be best ascertained by taking the Fibonacci values from the top-to-bottom of recent bearish swing best appreciated in the daily chart.


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The model itself remains BEARISH, therefore, this reactive rally is purely based on a technical foundation, and as such carries less probability force than the model itself, in my experience.

Overall, one has to define his/her own reasoning when it comes to trading against large FX banks, which are the only price-moving agents in this market, against a pattern expectation that is purely empirical and not necessarily as reliable as a quantitative product, such as the model's current bias. So, traders beware!

In reference to a prior trading pearl where I defined a "House Cleaning" dynamic price pattern, where price is first seen to retrace at the same 0.786-Fibonacci level following a higher high, and then retrace a third and final time to a 0.50-Fib level (here, it achieved a 0.618-Fib, instead), we can add one point of probability to the bullish expectant side of the market. Perhaps as more and more banks are kicked out of their bearish positions, the market will lighten up from under bearish weights, and price would be able to follow its interim rallying to the heights defined in prior analyses.

For such event to gain confirmation, I would recommend to wait for a BACA > the recent higher-high at 0.80335.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
(Announced in Twitter:

$NZDUSD - Updated predictive analysis available at this thread's end:

- https://www.tradingview.com/v/F2y6Qcy3/#tc110887

via @tradingview | $NZD $USD #RBNZ #forex )
+2 Reply
18 OCT 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDUSD might offer a last 50-Fib retrace before rallying ("House Cleaning"):

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via @tradingview | $NZD $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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