When one considers where price is at right now, then it is not yet possible to say with absolute certainty that NZDUSD is going lower. We are still sitting on top of a strong support line. Only when this line is broken and closed under (on 4hr chart) then I will have a bearish bias. The reasoning behind this technical analysis and concrete targets are shown on the chart. Be aware regarding the targets, the longer it takes to break this blue line the higher they should go based on the slopes where they are situated. Apologies for the humongous font size of the call outs, made the chart unclear!. Good luck!
You've noticed that price found strong resistance at 0.382 of BC. I like it. It's an important piece of information. I also understand your concern that price found support at 0.5 of AB. These two facts seem to send contradicting signals. It understandable: this market was in the strongest up trend in the early days of May and then in the strongest down trend in the early days of this month. However, in cases like this, markets have taught me to follow the recent price development rather than the older one, at least until things clear up. So at least for the next one or two daily candles I'd expect the continutation of the bearish trend.
NQunlocked
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Thank you for the great response ForceFollower as usual!. What do you think about waiting for a 4hr close beneath that support line, is that something reasonable to get an idea of where we are headed?
ForceFollower
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Let me be honest. I haven't tested such a thesis, so I can't tell. It may just as well stop half way down and reverse upwards.
NQunlocked
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Short entry is about to get triggered..
ForceFollower
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Yes, there's still some room to the up side.
NQunlocked
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Look how we closed above the 0.38, it is now acting as support (AUDUSD is going lower I guess that is the reason, but it is progressing very steadily between the upper limits of BB's so I don't see it going down yet)
NQunlocked
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NQunlocked
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Elliot wave suggests we are reaching 0.5 fib before going all the way to the from from wave iV
ForceFollower
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It's possible, but I don't find it likely to occur tomorrow or the next day, but rather at some point in time that you've marked on your chart with a letter 'b'. Until then I expect the bearish pressure to continue. If it fails to take out the low at 'a', then the 'b', or even higher than 'b', is what I'd expect next.