As you can see in this elliott wave count, since 2009 an structure that presumably could be an zigzag due the small retracement after the first five was completed, had been developing. The complex part is the C)) wave which is forming as a diagonal. There are several possibilities for the count of this last piece, but any of them lead a down side movement. If there is a double tree to end the 5) of this diagonal the price should move to the south. Even if you consider that could be a Z wave into it, the price should retrace to make the connecting X wave. And even If you assume the price is in a more complex B)) wave, still should fall as the 2 wave seems finished.
How far? Well we will need to see how the following wave develops but as far as now a complete impulse to the down side had been all ready formed (the small down recent movement to 0.8459) after a possible pullback which should retrace more than the half of this movement we can expect a movement at least 1.5 times the first decline. There after we could see if this is impulsive in a greater grade or is a zigzag and then should have more to assess what will come later.
You might also draw an ascending triangle with the horizontal top from august 2011 till now - and expect an upward breakout of that....
But anyway... I am bearish on the Kiwi short-term
7pasos
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In fact in first place I also saw it as a diagonal, but when thinking more about it, given that all the structure of C is a Diagonal, the guide line of clarity, think is compromised under this theory because the time elapsed in this as diagonal, means that even when it be finished only the wave a)) will be done and also need a retracement for b)) and new rise as wave c)). That is why i slashed this idea by now and preferred the alternative of a combination that could be easily missed with the diagonal.
But anyway... I am bearish on the Kiwi short-term