Akil_Stokes
Short

NZDUSD: An Interesting Dilemma (Potential Bearish Cypher)

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
Pain free targets on our Kiwi trade from last night however we're now faced with an interesting dilemma as we inch closer to our bearish Cypher Formation completion point at 6793.

In last night's video we looked at a handful of potential opportunities, but took a closer look at NZDUSD             . Not only did we have the bullish Gartley Formation, but when doing our top-down analysis we also saw that this could be used as a bigger trend continuation opportunity in predicting a move to the 6850's level.

Now that we have a second advanced pattern formation forming the question is (for those shooting for the TCT move) is do you stick with the original trade? Or do you take the new pattern?

Now before you ask me "What should I do Akil?" Please know that my answer is going to be "What does your plan say?" But I think it'll be interesting to see how the different members of our live room are handling it and should make for some good discussion and insight for those who are looking to create rules for a situation like this.

Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst & Head Trading Coach
http://www.TradeEmpowered.com -The Premier Online Trading Education Company
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Trade closed: target reached
I took that Gartley an had take profit. I am going to take this Cypher. Cypher's targets are not very huge. At least the first target.
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Akil_Stokes PRO Alexander_Nikitin
Nicely done
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BUT, if the cypher completes, it has essentially done a higher high, higher close, so how do users tackle that one?
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To make a HH price needs to break some resistance. Broken resistance turns into support - price goes to retest that level and only then it goes to continue new uptrend. This is very common scenario. The second scenario: price makes a HH and this HH turns into a false breakout because price goes to the downside. This is also a very common scenario. Both scenarios give cypher pattern almost 70% probability to hit the first target before price goes beyond X. Cypher pattern doesn't invalidate the Higher timeframe analysis.
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Mberg PRO Alexander_Nikitin
Thanks :)
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you are welcome) :)
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My view is that its a bullish trend, but its shown a triple top, and im a pattern trader only, and Cyphers have a very high completion rate, IF all pattern are taken. I never found much comparison between trend and cypher complation % that i could really measure. If we start to pick between what is a good pattern and what is potentially a bad pattern, the succes rate falls quite fast. As long as the ratios are valid, its a valid trade for me on this pair.

snapshot
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Akil_Stokes PRO ThomasJeff_DCM
I like your way of thinking Thomas
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very nice pick Akil. price has started to move into your way
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Akil_Stokes PRO GoodLuckbabe
Thank you
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its a no brainer to take the bear cypher for patterns traders out there because the the price already hit 2nd target for the bull gartley earlier! :D
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Love the discipline!
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RamdzanY Akil_Stokes
turned out to be a back to back profitable patterns after all. cheers!
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Got to love consolidation!
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I think it's better continuation of the trend because if you look at the weekly chart we are right in the 61.8 of the fibo
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I certainly thought that we had room to the upside as well. A test of 6850's wouldn't have surprised me at all
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I took it as a 2618 ;)
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Its teasing us, it turned 5 pips from our PRZ and hit T1 now, ohh the game
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Hamrall ThomasJeff_DCM
I think you're in a different trade. My T1 is .6720 low
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Im in the trade i posted earlier, it went down to the PRZ i outlined in blue, then it stalled and my god it turned around, but i only trade one targets but its the biggest candle ive seen in a long time heh.. Just blew 3 patterns to targets, sometimes news can be good to us
snapshot
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Hamrall ThomasJeff_DCM
JACKPOT! ;)
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Hamrall Hamrall
Gapped below my second target so both targets got filled 45 pips lower that tgt 2
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Well its dangerous, its only luck that it went the right way this time. The first time UK send out it would make an election to exit EU i was on the wrong side of 4 trades that gappen, it hurt. I just removed all my orders till tomorrow when all gaps are closed, in these conditions its not trading.
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Hamrall ThomasJeff_DCM
Plan says trade it so I trade it
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Mberg PRO ThomasJeff_DCM
Agree, this was a "saved by the bell" time!
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Akil_Stokes PRO ThomasJeff_DCM
I told you about entering your full position at once Thomas lol You and your institutional money
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I actually entered with full position, but i only trade one target still from low volatility last year and 2014. Its been making me a hell of a lot more money than close the second half at T2. Exept this year i´m really thinking to change back, there have been a very high T2 strike rate. But i will wait to the end of this quarter to make a decission. Now i got so used to only a 1:3 or 1:5 RR and making plenty of pips doing so, but this year im leaving pips behind for sure
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Akil_Stokes PRO ThomasJeff_DCM
it's all about making adjustments
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nice!
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I have decided to skip this trade based on my "score" analyses although the trade is still valid.
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If it was in the plan to skip, then that was a very good move
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That was a lucky strike. I've got 65+65 pips thanks to the gap.
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Akil_Stokes PRO serdargurlek
Sometimes we get lucky sometimes unlucky
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I stayed on my plan and set the limit order at the Cypher completion, i watched it go on the minus side, i had my hands tight and let the markets do what it had to do. And i got rewarded for doing so. :)
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Exactly my plan too. although i only trade one target
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Hopefully this ends up being a lesson that will help you down the road when similar situations occur. Well done
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the price will either go up or down anyway, only 2 ways.
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Akil_Stokes PRO Jeffrey_Sucipto
Exactly, and we have zero control over which way it chooses
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Jeffrey_Sucipto Akil_Stokes
Exactly, if you put 2 arrows (up and down) at any point in time. one of your arrow will turn out to be RIGHT. so what's the point?
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Akil_Stokes PRO Jeffrey_Sucipto
Please re-read the description Jeffrey
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Did you pick up both those profits.... Sheesh, trading with the pro's
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sheess, pro dont like to be critised
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Akil_Stokes PRO Jeffrey_Sucipto
most of us are pretty used to it
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Yes both targets were hit on the trade
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Perfect!
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Yeah it worked out pretty well
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That was an excellent call! You are an amazing trader. Thanks for sharing. Not only did the Cypher work out as you planned. But you could have taken the retracement of that fall. How often do you take the retracements? Thanks!
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I'm sorry but I don't understand what you mean by "take the retracements"
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coondawg71 PRO Akil_Stokes
my apologies, didn't mean to be vague. I meant how often do you fade your Cypher trades after they are completed.
+1 Reply
when the opportunity presents itself
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