Akil_Stokes
Short

NZDUSD: An Interesting Dilemma (Potential Bearish Cypher)

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
9 months ago
Pain free targets on our Kiwi trade from last night however we're now faced with an interesting dilemma as we inch closer to our bearish Cypher Formation completion point at 6793.

In last night's video we looked at a handful of potential opportunities, but took a closer look at NZDUSD             . Not only did we have the bullish Gartley Formation, but when doing our top-down analysis we also saw that this could be used as a bigger trend continuation opportunity in predicting a move to the 6850's level.

Now that we have a second advanced pattern formation forming the question is (for those shooting for the TCT move) is do you stick with the original trade? Or do you take the new pattern?

Now before you ask me "What should I do Akil?" Please know that my answer is going to be "What does your plan say?" But I think it'll be interesting to see how the different members of our live room are handling it and should make for some good discussion and insight for those who are looking to create rules for a situation like this.

Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst & Head Trading Coach
www.TradeEmpowered.com -The Premier Online Trading Education Company
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9 months ago
Trade closed: target reached
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"Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan"




I took that Gartley an had take profit. I am going to take this Cypher. Cypher's targets are not very huge. At least the first target.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Alexander_Nikitin
9 months ago
Nicely done
+1 Reply
BUT, if the cypher completes, it has essentially done a higher high, higher close, so how do users tackle that one?
Reply
Alexander_Nikitin TOP Mathias-HarmonicTrader-Sweden
9 months ago
To make a HH price needs to break some resistance. Broken resistance turns into support - price goes to retest that level and only then it goes to continue new uptrend. This is very common scenario. The second scenario: price makes a HH and this HH turns into a false breakout because price goes to the downside. This is also a very common scenario. Both scenarios give cypher pattern almost 70% probability to hit the first target before price goes beyond X. Cypher pattern doesn't invalidate the Higher timeframe analysis.
+1 Reply
Mathias-HarmonicTrader-Sweden PRO Alexander_Nikitin
9 months ago
Thanks :)
+1 Reply
Alexander_Nikitin TOP Mathias-HarmonicTrader-Sweden
9 months ago
you are welcome) :)
Reply
My view is that its a bullish trend, but its shown a triple top, and im a pattern trader only, and Cyphers have a very high completion rate, IF all pattern are taken. I never found much comparison between trend and cypher complation % that i could really measure. If we start to pick between what is a good pattern and what is potentially a bad pattern, the succes rate falls quite fast. As long as the ratios are valid, its a valid trade for me on this pair.

snapshot
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP ThomasJeff_DCM
9 months ago
I like your way of thinking Thomas
+1 Reply
GoodLuckbabe
9 months ago
very nice pick Akil. price has started to move into your way
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP GoodLuckbabe
9 months ago
Thank you
Reply
RamdzanY
9 months ago
its a no brainer to take the bear cypher for patterns traders out there because the the price already hit 2nd target for the bull gartley earlier! :D
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP RamdzanY
9 months ago
Love the discipline!
+1 Reply
RamdzanY Akil_Stokes
9 months ago
turned out to be a back to back profitable patterns after all. cheers!
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP RamdzanY
9 months ago
Got to love consolidation!
Reply
Abraham
9 months ago
I think it's better continuation of the trend because if you look at the weekly chart we are right in the 61.8 of the fibo
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Abraham
9 months ago
I certainly thought that we had room to the upside as well. A test of 6850's wouldn't have surprised me at all
Reply
Hamrall
9 months ago
I took it as a 2618 ;)
+1 Reply
ThomasJeff_DCM PRO Hamrall
9 months ago
Its teasing us, it turned 5 pips from our PRZ and hit T1 now, ohh the game
Reply
Hamrall ThomasJeff_DCM
9 months ago
I think you're in a different trade. My T1 is .6720 low
Reply
ThomasJeff_DCM PRO Hamrall
9 months ago
Im in the trade i posted earlier, it went down to the PRZ i outlined in blue, then it stalled and my god it turned around, but i only trade one targets but its the biggest candle ive seen in a long time heh.. Just blew 3 patterns to targets, sometimes news can be good to us
snapshot
+2 Reply
Hamrall ThomasJeff_DCM
9 months ago
JACKPOT! ;)
Reply
Hamrall Hamrall
9 months ago
Gapped below my second target so both targets got filled 45 pips lower that tgt 2
Reply
ThomasJeff_DCM PRO Hamrall
9 months ago
Well its dangerous, its only luck that it went the right way this time. The first time UK send out it would make an election to exit EU i was on the wrong side of 4 trades that gappen, it hurt. I just removed all my orders till tomorrow when all gaps are closed, in these conditions its not trading.
+1 Reply
Hamrall ThomasJeff_DCM
9 months ago
Plan says trade it so I trade it
Reply
Mathias-HarmonicTrader-Sweden PRO ThomasJeff_DCM
9 months ago
Agree, this was a "saved by the bell" time!
Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP ThomasJeff_DCM
9 months ago
I told you about entering your full position at once Thomas lol You and your institutional money
+1 Reply
ThomasJeff_DCM PRO Akil_Stokes
9 months ago
I actually entered with full position, but i only trade one target still from low volatility last year and 2014. Its been making me a hell of a lot more money than close the second half at T2. Exept this year i´m really thinking to change back, there have been a very high T2 strike rate. But i will wait to the end of this quarter to make a decission. Now i got so used to only a 1:3 or 1:5 RR and making plenty of pips doing so, but this year im leaving pips behind for sure
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP ThomasJeff_DCM
9 months ago
it's all about making adjustments
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Hamrall
9 months ago
nice!
Reply
CROforce
9 months ago
I have decided to skip this trade based on my "score" analyses although the trade is still valid.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP CROforce
9 months ago
If it was in the plan to skip, then that was a very good move
Reply
serdargurlek
9 months ago
That was a lucky strike. I've got 65+65 pips thanks to the gap.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP serdargurlek
9 months ago
Sometimes we get lucky sometimes unlucky
Reply
I stayed on my plan and set the limit order at the Cypher completion, i watched it go on the minus side, i had my hands tight and let the markets do what it had to do. And i got rewarded for doing so. :)
+1 Reply
ThomasJeff_DCM PRO Mathias-HarmonicTrader-Sweden
9 months ago
Exactly my plan too. although i only trade one target
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Mathias-HarmonicTrader-Sweden
9 months ago
Hopefully this ends up being a lesson that will help you down the road when similar situations occur. Well done
Reply
Jeffrey_Sucipto
9 months ago
the price will either go up or down anyway, only 2 ways.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Jeffrey_Sucipto
9 months ago
Exactly, and we have zero control over which way it chooses
Reply
Jeffrey_Sucipto Akil_Stokes
9 months ago
Exactly, if you put 2 arrows (up and down) at any point in time. one of your arrow will turn out to be RIGHT. so what's the point?
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Jeffrey_Sucipto
9 months ago
Please re-read the description Jeffrey
Reply
Cooke
9 months ago
Did you pick up both those profits.... Sheesh, trading with the pro's
+1 Reply
Jeffrey_Sucipto Cooke
9 months ago
sheess, pro dont like to be critised
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Jeffrey_Sucipto
9 months ago
most of us are pretty used to it
Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Cooke
9 months ago
Yes both targets were hit on the trade
Reply
tntsunrise TOP
9 months ago
Perfect!
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP tntsunrise
9 months ago
Yeah it worked out pretty well
Reply
coondawg71 PRO
8 months ago
That was an excellent call! You are an amazing trader. Thanks for sharing. Not only did the Cypher work out as you planned. But you could have taken the retracement of that fall. How often do you take the retracements? Thanks!
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP coondawg71
8 months ago
I'm sorry but I don't understand what you mean by "take the retracements"
Reply
coondawg71 PRO Akil_Stokes
8 months ago
my apologies, didn't mean to be vague. I meant how often do you fade your Cypher trades after they are completed.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP coondawg71
8 months ago
when the opportunity presents itself
Reply
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