novvoll12
Long

NZDUSD - Probes falling wedge resistance, a breakout is key

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
NZDUSD             0.6421 – Short-term Neutral – Probes falling wedge resistance, a breakout is key

NZDUSD             rallied from .6243 (September 7, 2015 low) to reach .6457 Friday (September 18, 2015 high), just shy of the .6466 pivot (August 31, 2015 high), probing 4-month falling wedge resistance. Improving technical indicators/potential positive divergence suggest there is scope for further upside. A decisive break through the latter is key to accelerating gains towards the .6707/.6738 lower highs (August 21/July 29, 2015). Clearance above there would confirm basing over .6196/.6243 (August 24/September 7, 2015 lows) and improve the outlook for .6793 (38.2% of the .7743/.6196 fall). However, if the .6466 pivot area manages to cap the recovery, back below .6311 (September 17, 2015) would weaken towards .6196/.6243 for a retest.

Outlook:
Intraday: bullish
Daily: neutral
Weekly: bearish
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