This is how I see this pair at the moment. My view can change later on, if we start seeing conflicting moves. At the moment, I believe that this could play out. This is a very long-term view, but still could work out. I will not recommend any entry points, but if we clearly start seeing this pattern forming, then this could potentially be a very nice trade to the downside. But not now. Let it walk.
But yes, exactly, so far... =) Still the right shoulder would need to develop. But, as we all know, the markets don't do what we think they would do. =)