Hello,
This how my NZD usd chart was marked up from a couple of weeks ago. The only additions are the two red dashed lines - The top one is still active (100%+ in profit), and I closed the bottom one for a 60% profit because I was paranoid about a spike in price taking out my stop at break even.
Anyway, I traded this 100% on the chart and wasn't aware of the news until later when I was stopped into a trade while busy doing other things. So, lets just say that there was a element of dumb luck in my trade.
The thing that worries me is that reports of NZ's economy not showing more life, despite low interest rates, and low inflation that isn't picking up as expected just restricted to NZ. Europe, Japan, Australia, and the USA are making similar noises. It made me think that the experiment of QE and ultra low interest rates are not working. I expect similar statements to be released by other central banks this year. It appears we will be approaching the zero mark in interest rates soon worldwide... where to from there? Below the zero line and forced seizures of capital as happened in Greece? Maybe just the more polite way Japan is doing it, having negative interest rates on bank accounts. Maybe QE4 or QE5 and massive currency devaluations. Maybe.
What is the risk free rate of return as decided by the market? We don't know and haven't known since the start of QE. All the cheap capital has been doing its job of coaxing people and Companies into making investments that they otherwise wouldn't have made. I now worry what result that might have down the line. Sorry if this sounds very amateurish to economists.
This how my NZD usd chart was marked up from a couple of weeks ago. The only additions are the two red dashed lines - The top one is still active (100%+ in profit), and I closed the bottom one for a 60% profit because I was paranoid about a spike in price taking out my stop at break even.
Anyway, I traded this 100% on the chart and wasn't aware of the news until later when I was stopped into a trade while busy doing other things. So, lets just say that there was a element of dumb luck in my trade.
The thing that worries me is that reports of NZ's economy not showing more life, despite low interest rates, and low inflation that isn't picking up as expected just restricted to NZ. Europe, Japan, Australia, and the USA are making similar noises. It made me think that the experiment of QE and ultra low interest rates are not working. I expect similar statements to be released by other central banks this year. It appears we will be approaching the zero mark in interest rates soon worldwide... where to from there? Below the zero line and forced seizures of capital as happened in Greece? Maybe just the more polite way Japan is doing it, having negative interest rates on bank accounts. Maybe QE4 or QE5 and massive currency devaluations. Maybe.
What is the risk free rate of return as decided by the market? We don't know and haven't known since the start of QE. All the cheap capital has been doing its job of coaxing people and Companies into making investments that they otherwise wouldn't have made. I now worry what result that might have down the line. Sorry if this sounds very amateurish to economists.
Trade closed manually:
I made a third short trade too, it triggered (0.68208) and closed (0.67739) while I was working for a 46% gain. The top red dashed line was closed for 128% gain. So NZD/USD is a rare 3 from 3 for me. I will be looking to re-enter short after a bit more of a rally up if my news expectations are consistent with TA.
Trade closed: target reached:
I didn't stay in but wish I had now