NZDUSD | Perspective for the week | Follow up
We experienced over 250pips move in our direction since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes) and I suspect that price-action is going through a Correction phase that we are yet to decipher when it will stall.
Last week trading session saw the Kiwi close in the positive territory for four straight days and continued to find higher highs that culminated at $0.7070 on Friday. Market participants still remain optimistic for the Greenback ahead of the June Nonfarm Payrolls report. At the time being, market expectations point to a 600,000 increase in the headline number, while the unemployment rate is foreseen contracting from 5.8% to 5.7%.
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Harmonic pattern (AB = CD)
Observation: i. Since hitting a peak at $0.74500 on February 25th 2021, the price continued to find lower lows hereby transposing into what looks like a Descending channel.
ii. DESCENDING CHANNEL: Connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price action with parallel trendlines reveals the prevailing downward trend since February 2021.
iii. A successful Breakdown of $0.71200 on the 16th of June 2021 confirms the Bearish momentum.
iv. With the current structure, Correction phase is happening and I am yet to decipher where and when it will stall in anticipation of a decline continuation.
v. In this regards, I have identified a selling niche around $0.71000/0.78000 area.
vi. I expect a transition into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) in the coming week with parameters explained below;
a. Impulse A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg.
b. The B- to-C leg is expected to fall around 61.8% with the potentials of extending to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg.
c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext . of the A-to-B @ $0.68000 area.
iv. Should price refuse to climb into the selling niche, anywhere below my Key level remains a yardstick for selling opportunity in the coming week(s).
v. A Further plunge below $0.69400 (breakdown/retest) might welcome addition to the existing position.... Trade consciously! 😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips.
Risk/Reward: 1:5
Potential Duration: 7 to 15days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Last week trading session saw the Kiwi close in the positive territory for four straight days and continued to find higher highs that culminated at $0.7070 on Friday. Market participants still remain optimistic for the Greenback ahead of the June Nonfarm Payrolls report. At the time being, market expectations point to a 600,000 increase in the headline number, while the unemployment rate is foreseen contracting from 5.8% to 5.7%.
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Harmonic pattern (AB = CD)
Observation: i. Since hitting a peak at $0.74500 on February 25th 2021, the price continued to find lower lows hereby transposing into what looks like a Descending channel.
ii. DESCENDING CHANNEL: Connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price action with parallel trendlines reveals the prevailing downward trend since February 2021.
iii. A successful Breakdown of $0.71200 on the 16th of June 2021 confirms the Bearish momentum.
iv. With the current structure, Correction phase is happening and I am yet to decipher where and when it will stall in anticipation of a decline continuation.
v. In this regards, I have identified a selling niche around $0.71000/0.78000 area.
vi. I expect a transition into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) in the coming week with parameters explained below;
a. Impulse A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg.
b. The B- to-C leg is expected to fall around 61.8% with the potentials of extending to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg.
c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext . of the A-to-B @ $0.68000 area.
iv. Should price refuse to climb into the selling niche, anywhere below my Key level remains a yardstick for selling opportunity in the coming week(s).
v. A Further plunge below $0.69400 (breakdown/retest) might welcome addition to the existing position.... Trade consciously! 😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips.
Risk/Reward: 1:5
Potential Duration: 7 to 15days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Trade smart. Trade consciously
