NZDUSD - What CPI Required to Revive Fed Rate Hike Expectations?
US Date coming up and still waiting for a big response from this pair. Expectations from Fed to even consider resume rates increase on the backdrop of Brexit uncertainty would require a massive CPI increase. Maybe 1.5 +. This is of course after big NFP did little to shift market sentiment on Fed decisions.
Working with 2 TL's - green being from most recent and white longer. Feeling CPI around 1.2~ will make PA drop to lower TL level @ 0.7100. Expecting a CPI around 1.3 ~ 1.4 from momentum from NFP pushing through. If this does happen then 0.70 will be an easy target. 1.5+ CPI release ( unlikely ) will confirm reversal for this pair and likely most other USD pairs for some decent PA.
Weakening CPI below 1.0 will mean a false break of green TL and a continued move up to .740
Remember that Monday brings CPI release from RBNZ and their recent forecasts have been off the mark so there is currently dovish bias with this pair specifically.
Currently already short with trailing stop of 95 points ( 9.5 pips ) to reduce whiplash risk. Feeling a little conservative today :p
Working with 2 TL's - green being from most recent and white longer. Feeling CPI around 1.2~ will make PA drop to lower TL level @ 0.7100. Expecting a CPI around 1.3 ~ 1.4 from momentum from NFP pushing through. If this does happen then 0.70 will be an easy target. 1.5+ CPI release ( unlikely ) will confirm reversal for this pair and likely most other USD pairs for some decent PA.
Weakening CPI below 1.0 will mean a false break of green TL and a continued move up to .740
Remember that Monday brings CPI release from RBNZ and their recent forecasts have been off the mark so there is currently dovish bias with this pair specifically.
Currently already short with trailing stop of 95 points ( 9.5 pips ) to reduce whiplash risk. Feeling a little conservative today :p