Current retail positioning on the NZDUSD is +3.75 as 79% of traders are currently positioned to the long side of the NZDUSD trade.
This is important because if the pair continues to drop significantly, these traders will likely get stopped out, margin called or simply close their trade out of frustration in the position. This means they become a future supply of sellers.
Assessing the wave count, the pair is taking on the look that blue circle wave v may become an extended wave. That places targets down near .61.
Check out the Daily Chart published a couple weeks back for 2 other wave relationships that show up down near .61-.63 (Kiwi Support Shelf Break Could Be Signficant)
If we are in the beginning stages of an extended 5th wave, then prices will likely hug the lower purple channel line. A significant move above the upper purple channel line hampers the extended 5th wave interpretation.
Your comments are welcome as this one isn't as clear as EURUSD , EURAUD, or USDJPY. Any other interpretations are appreciated.
I´m short in NZDJPY with average price of 88.3 , long AUDNZD and with a small short in NZDUSD with SL above 0.707 . So I wouldn´t consider any longs till a reversal is confirmed. I agree with further downside potential
JWagnerFXTrader
⋅
I haven't looked at the NZDJPY in quite some time. My initial glances does line up with your views. How it behaves around 85.00 should help clear up the near term picture too. I'll have to add this one to my radar. Thank you for sharing!