$NZD v. $USD - Full Geo Cycle Completion Eyed At 0.64974 | #kiwi

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar

Just as we hit all bearish #fibonacci-based targets in this chart (see "Linked To Related Ideas" below), we are now contemplating a rallying up to 0.64974, based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule, as price is expected to reverse course from an ectopic Point-5 completion as 5' to Point-4, the highest probability level of attainment.

Note that price is currently stompled at the convergence of the current Geo's 1-3 Line and the prior (ghosted in grey) Geo's 1-4 Line. This line represents a conservative signal level, although BACA > 3-5' was the first, most aggressive level of engagement for this long opp             .


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


David Alcindor

NOTE: See how the recent geometry-based strategy, combined with simple Fibonacci targets allowed us to complete a successful trade, here:

Follow me on Tradingview.com (alias 4xForecaster) for recent and current analyses)

David Alcindor
08 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Target Hit:

I guess, we are done with this one too:

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Heelfan23 4xForecaster
Hello David.. Do you see this possibly making the full correction to the .64974 mark at this point?
+1 Reply
Hello @Heelfan23,

Here is a closer view of the structures so far:

The CONs Against A Rally:

What is the most damning at this point is the lower low which price carved out (see lowest two dashed arrows facing passing one another, highlighting this very discreet but critical event). This suggest that the foray into lower lows, combined with an impulse count in terms of internal waves, makes it a renewed bearish force to the down-side - See chart:

At this point, price action is waging a corrective battle to the upside, and there is no certainty where the chart above is truly a bearish impulse. If it is, then a correction could not surpass the origination point of that bearish impulse, which itself started at the 50% core of a prior hidden geometry (that level is rarely retested.

The PROs For A Rally:

Assuming that the bearish impulse is bits and parts of a larger corrective system, in the form of a double or even triple zigzag, or even a triangle or similar corrective geometries (I have not delved into the internal waves to confirm this, but let's just assume), then there remains the possibility of such rally.

What I would be looking for at this time is a reach into the first, thin pink zone. So, we are not even talking about breaching the 0.64555 (see chart below) level, which would help negate the start of a bearish impulse. Once this zone is reached, I would look at a possible consolidation and resumption to further upside up to 0.64366 - If this could occur, then bulls have a "tighter grip" on further escalation.

In contrast, if the pink zone imposes a failure to rise further, then I would simply remain bearish until proven otherwise.

Hoping this answer your query - This is just a personal opinion, and others are welcome to weigh in, especially any proven erudite professional in wave count, as mine are likely too simplistic an interpretation.

Thank you.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Heelfan23 4xForecaster
Thank you so much!!! I had been looking at your EURNZD prediction. I was just curious about this pair, as to the correlation. They somewhat look as though they run inversely. It is at the 61.8 of the resent impulse, hitting a trend line, as well as a descent resistance level. I was thinking that might be a turning point back to the short side. Thank you for the expertise, and all the great work you share!!!!
It really helps to confirm what I see. Very interested in the way you set up trades.
+1 Reply
Appreciate the feedback.

The EURNZD chart is a bit corky, so I would look for geometry completion, rather than trade towards the completion, just to remain on the safe side of things.

The $EURUSD vs. $USDNZD correlation is not reliable, which make that chart even corkier. At a daily basis, the correlation is weak and negative (-50), whereas at the weekly basis, the correlation is weak and positive (+50) - I would look for pairs whose correlations are consistent across multiple timeframes, with values approaching or averaging 20 for inversely correlated pairs or 80 for the positively correlated pairs. These tend to do well.

- Here is a source for such correlations: https://www.mataf.net/en/tools/01-01-correlation

NZD is a commodity-heavy currency, with good correlations to the price of dairy (truth is, most of its income is generated based on the price of agricultural products which it exports to the proximal Asian theaters: Look for how China is doing for a proximal impact on $NZD). Any pair that involves the $NZD has to look into the price of dairy, pure and simple

- Here is the link to that site where the dates for next bids are conveniently posted: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/

Note that the next auction date is on 06 OCT 2015 (Event #149 - Be there or be square).

I do not have a chart to follow he dairy price, but on last look, I expected it to rally. It went up from -9% to +14, 10, then 16%. As long as these percentages remain near or above half of their averages (13.33% is the average of the last three bid results, then I would expect that bulls will continue to maintain these price afloat - A bit simplistic for lack of a chart, but it might give a rough idea while walking in the dark - Perhaps TradingView / @admin will acquire the data for these type of charts).


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Following is a synoptic recap of the trade, starting from Point-4 of the Geo to the bearish target, which are now offering a point of bullish departure towards a new target per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

27 AUG 2015:

27 AUG 2015:

27 AUG 2015:

27 AUG 2015:

27 AUG 2015:

28 AUG 2015:

31 AUG 2015:

31 AUG 2015:


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
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