While domestic fundamentals continue to point to strength in the New Zealand dollar (i.e. the 1Q GDP released this week was strong, meaningfully surpassing the consensus expectations: 1.6% quarter-on-quarter vs the consensus at 0.5%), the external environment matters more. The hawkish Fed and the rebound in USD are clear near-term risks for NZD/USD and suggest caution for next week. Yet, with the earlier Fed tapering now expected and more than two months to Jackson Hole, we expect the fundamentally sound NZD to recover over the summer. Interestingly, despite the meaningfully larger long speculative positioning in NZD vs AUD (where speculative positioning is modestly short), NZD did not underperform AUD – underscoring the solid domestic NZ story.
On the data front, it will be a quite week. 2Q consumer confidence (Monday) and May trade balance data (Thursday) should not affect NZD much next week. NZD/USD will be largely about the dollar and the upcoming communication from various FOMC members scheduled for next week.