Rocketman
Short

NZD and GDT Milk Price Index Speculation (Weekly Chart)

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
213 3 10
3 months ago
I keep trying to find BULLISH reasons for buying NZDUSD             , but found none,there is even a brief breach of support and tweezer wicks. The only thing NZDUSD             is missing for it to fall is an economic catalyst!

Where will this catalyst come from? The catalyst will come THIS WEEK in the GDT Index!

Technicals:
Before I get into the fundamental reasons, here are some technical reasons to short: NINE WEEKLY REASONS TO SELL NZDUSD:
(1) Triple Cycle
(2) Exhaustion Pattern
(3) Divergence on MACD
(4) Stochastic Divergence
(5) 3 Equal Legs Up
(6) Monthly Resistance
(7) Top of Monthly Channel
(8) Candle Wicks

Fundamentals:
Missing Bearish Economic Catalyst = GDT Low Milk Prices

I think that the GDT Index will not be as great as in August: Be warned, the NZ             economy may start to see a good economic outlook. Fonterra, the world's largest dairy exporter, based in New Zealand, forecasts higher milk prices this somewhere between this to to 2017 from $4.25 to $4.75/KG in New Zealand dollars (the time factor is so large a for us that it is meaningless: http://edairynews.com/en/fonterra-lifts-milk-price-forecast-as-global-glut-wanes-48411/).. This is one among many reasons why the New Zealand just cannot fall and make a lower daily low. But where is the price now? It was 19 in August..too high. This year $6 is already good (that's what some are fine with). So, that means it will fall from that high $19 price, right? It look like that to me.

So, I speculate that the GDT Price index must fall. You see? You just cannot pick up an economic calendar and look at positive or negative numbers. You have to think and anticipate its trickiness. Now, I could be wrong and milk prices continue to soar for some reason to $40? lol! I don't expect that...that's really too high, and not probable.

Now, what if the milk prices do come out lower in the GDT Index? I don't expect an all out crash and fall in the NZD, but that could put a damper on people's high hopes of yield. They are the ones who will "sell first" and think later. If they do, theb I favor a small move down to my smaller targets on the 4 hour chart and 2 hour chart. I don't think we will see a new low until we has a great catalyst. That catalyst MUST come from milk prices, and this is why I am highlighting it: Dairy is the leading export for New Zealand, and they have to make sales outside of their country to float well and grow economically. Do you see why this can affect this trade? In other words, whatever chat pattern their is..it can be further influence or break the pattern formed by the psychology of the NZDUSD             market on the chart. If it comes out great, then that will lower the chance for a rate cut, and NZD will rally up. If my short position is right, the GDT price index would have fallen and down she blows!

There is NO Chart Pattern or price action that will tell you about the milk price on Tuesday. We must do the research ourselves and put the pieces together.
Do you know why there could have been a spike in NZD? EURO             is going to attempt to reduce milk prices and make a deal with farmers and keep it there despite demand (but this will happen late this year): https://www.agra-net.com/agra/dairy-markets/analysis/policy/eu-agrees-milk-production-reduction-package-525262.htm . The farmers will " receive a payment for reducing output in a three-month period in late 2016 or early 2017."

Amazingly you can see that milk powder futures starting to slip: https://www.agra-net.com/agra/dairy-markets/markets/powders/daily-price-update-30082016-milk-powder-futures-slip-525248.htm

..and the unofficial GDT Price index has already fallen: https://infogr.am/gdt_price_index_change
3 months ago
Comment: So, ladies and gentleman, a short may be a good trade, but we need USD data to come out GOOD, but I predict that the Non-ISM coming out for the US Dollar will be BAD. Another catalyst that can help this short position is the G-20 meeting on Sunday and Monday. If it pushes the US Dollar enough in a bullish way, then that will be enough for this short trade.

If not... I will lose gracefully, as this is one of many trades, not the final story! Good night!
2 months ago
Comment: Update on the New Zealand Price Index: http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11703875

Ot hasn't come out yet, but this is good to read: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/
2 months ago
Comment: Prices are up....so..trade went soar (no pun intended).

Related Ideas

ChimbOt PRO
2 months ago
So look like nzd data will be good?
Reply
Rocketman PRO ChimbOt
2 months ago
yeah... that's the worry for shorts in NZDUSD. I am also long AUDNZD. So, I, too, may be affected both ways.
Reply
Rocketman PRO ChimbOt
2 months ago
https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/
Reply
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