Interesting situation on the 15m chart for NZD/USD just before market close. We've got a valid bearish gartley 886 that completed earlier today, price has now retested the same area and opened up a potential short.
The measurements for a valid gartley pattern are detailed below. B: 0.618 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.13 - 1.618 Final X to D: 0.786 (0.886 due to AB=CD completion)
Gartley patterns at an 88.6% retracement of XA are unique, this is utilised when the AB=CD completion extends past the 78.6% retracement which is the standard measurement.
If we execute the trade, allow more room for the stop loss than usual... Between 1.0 and 1.13 of XA (beyond X).
Hold off on entry for now until we get a clear signal.
Thanks for your support as always!
Comment
⋅
Market open is soon, I'd like for you all to pay attention to the ascending channel on the 5m chart.
We'll see if price gaps at the open, this will be beneficial in determining short-term direction depending on direction.
Trade opportunity is still valid, keep it on the watch list!
Comment
⋅
Prices are driving higher, I'm still sidelined for now as I'm not convinced by current price action to execute a short position.
We may see price form a bearish crab at a 1.618 of XA instead... Still paying attention to the current structure.
It's late here in the U.K so this may be the last update for tonight... If I execute the trade I will update the idea.
Comment
⋅
Looking for a break lower, price re-tested the PRZ and downside is highly likely.
Comment
⋅
Price is sitting on support right now, expecting a breakdown followed by a continuation to the downside.
Comment
⋅
First target achieved at 0.382, to those in the trade I would move your SL to break even and consider reducing position size.
The next target at 0.618 is in sight!
Trade closed: target reached
⋅
To those holding, close your position as I now look towards AUD/NZD and NZD/CHF.
Thank you for this awesome idea - great catch and is progressing very nicely. I have now started to look into these harmonic patterns - thanks to your ideas! Is the 1.272 extension fib target of XA worth a shot? I am patient and I am curious how this will turn out. Again - thank you for all the brilliant patterns shared and identified continuously. All the Bests!
LewisGlasgow
⋅
@drgorogbalazs, thank you I appreciate that! Just so I know what you mean, are you talking about extending the take profit from 0.618 to 1.272 which would be beyond the A point meaning further declines?
drgorogbalazs
⋅
@LewisGlasgow, thank you for your very prompt reply - much appreciated. Yes, indeed - it then would go beyond A point meaning further decline. Thanks!
LewisGlasgow
⋅
@drgorogbalazs, this would conflict with long term positions as I may go long on NZD as shown below.
Both positions are showing great signs of reversal, mainly watching NZD/CHF at the moment.
drgorogbalazs
⋅
@LewisGlasgow, Thank you - indeed with the broader picture playing for a 1.272 failed low formation at this case may be to risky and is not worth playing for. Thanks again!
LewisGlasgow
⋅
@drgorogbalazs, seems like it did extend to around 1.272 after all ;) looking at AUD/NZD now... NZD/CHF is no longer valid.
drgorogbalazs
⋅
@LewisGlasgow, yep - thanks for reflecting, much appreciated. Your call was a great call and catch and provided a high probability/low risk profit with the 382 and 618 targets - and that is absolutely great. It reached 1.272 this time, next time will not :-) - it was more risky - some may take some may not :-). Thanks for the heads-up re: AUD/NZD and NZD/CHF - I am following both calls closely and yep - agree NZD/CHF is not valid whilst AUD/NZD is seeemingly starting to play-out nicely. Thanks for these - these harmonic patterns will add a lot to my strategies. Looking forward to more.
drgorogbalazs
⋅
@LewisGlasgow, and BTW if I see correctly - this move may still not invalidate the potential 1D NZD/USD long you are monitoring (?). This may be a failed low and if reverses now RSI would be showing a bullish divergence that may add to the confluence (either on daily and 4H). I think this may be still on the radar. Again - thanks!
sanzeeb
⋅
Good identification but hit Stop Loss if it's set to the level around X. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
LewisGlasgow
⋅
@sanzeeb, SL between 1.0 and 1.13, similar stop loss to bat pattern at 1.13.
Do not use the regular stop loss rules when trading gartley @ 886 of XA.
Setup is valid, if this was a regular gartley pattern at 0.786 yes you would be correct.