$NZD v. $USD - Model Eyes 0.55462 | #RBNZ #kiwi #elliottwave

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
2749 29 48

Following is the current #kiwi chart, highlighting a few of the recent market geometries that have developed, such as an Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle, which offered the mechanism of descent to the current levels, whereas a nascent Geo             is now offering its own pacing, affording price a soft landing towards the Predictive/Forecasting Model target, which was defined this past August 17th, 2015 as:

TG-Lox = 0.55462 - 17 AUG 2015

A more developed analysis follows in the discussion thread, looking into greater technical details and offering the argument supporting further downside.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: http://www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster

Comment: 15 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price has completed a 5-wave advance, implying that a correction is pending at this point. What is important to recognize here is that the current impulse is born out of its own correction from a massive preceding decline. Hence, there are two important points to keep in mind:

1 - A 5-wave correction is ALWAYS a zig-zag, thus expect a 5-3-5 internal development. In this particular case, we have the first 5 of the 5-3-5 construction, so what should ensue is a 3-wave decline resting ABOVE the origin of this new upward impulse.

2 - Any correction that follows a massive move would itself self-correct into significant depths, in the Fibonacci order of 0.618, or most often 0.786 or 0.886 - This is the depth that defines the EAGLE strategic method.

Hence, we need to answer only ONE question here: To what higher-low level would this correction from the current 5-wave of a 5-3-5 bring us to? To answer this question, I have draw a speculative ZZ in the chart, describing a probable decline from the current height, and a decline that would come into close alignment with the consolidation that preceded the current impulse:

If the current top holds, then we are looking at this potential interim development.


David Alcindor
Comment: ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

I have to say that I am particularly biased here, influenced by my own Geo, where points 3 and 4 are almost alway connected by a simple Elliott Wave zig-zag, as speculatively drawn in the chart above.

Comment: 21 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price reversed as forecast, expecting a simple reciprocal geometry in the interim, such as an Elliott Wave ZZ, whereas net forecast remains bearish with target intact and in force:

David Alcindor
Comment: 27 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$NZDUSD remains on task, expected to weave a simple #elliottwave correction:

$NZD $USD #kiwi #RBNZ #forex

David Alcindor
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains closely tethered to dashed forecast pathway ... There is no change in bearish target:

David Alcindor
Comment: 16 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed forecast pathway, nearing approximate support area as shown:

David Alcindor
Comment: 18 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price bouncing off of forecast level, remains tightly adherent to dashed forecast pathway:

David Alcindor

PS: I would pay particular attention to the $AUDNZD behavior as well - David
Comment: 06 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed arrow forecast. Interim rallying remains high-probability to 0.70118/0.71354 range in the intermediate term. Long-term remains bearish with L/T target pending at 0.55462, as defined this past August 17th, 2015:


David Alcindor
Comment: 19 JAN 2016 - Chart Update:

Rallying to forecast 0.70118/0.71354 range still in force:

David Alcindor
Comment: 02 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tightly tethered to dashed arrow forecast; Now nears target range of 0.70118/0.71354:


David Alcindor
Comment: 24 APR 2016 - Chart update / Tech-Note:

Again, price remains strictly adherent to the forecast dashed line, ultimately hitting the 0.70118/0.71354 target range:

Predictive/Forecasting Model remains unanswered per open target pending at the bearish 0.55462 level, defined last August 2015.


David Alcindor
Comment: 09 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed forecast lines, remains encapsulated within the 0.70118/0.71254 forecast range:
Comment: ... (cont'd) ...

Bears prevail - Bearish TG-Lox = 0.55462 defined last August 17th, 2015 remains intact and in force.


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 26 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

26 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Looking at the H4 level, a WW/Geo has completed, and price appears to rally slightly from the "Hit". Students of the CROW Code will see that a reversal is under way at this and scaled-down level, in support of the original WEEKLY chart, which continues to eye a bearish target defined last 2015 Summer (17 AUG 2015) as TG-Lox = 0.55462 - Link to original target setting in the comment field: http://bit.ly/2ahZUBt .:

For the fundamentally driven investors at this larger scale, look for the global dairy trade pricing in whole milk power over a 5-year period is shaping up into a bearish impulse in terms of an Elliott Wave formation, with recent oscillation terminating a 4th wave correction. Further downside is expected to carve lower lows, and thus to influence $NZD to carve lower lows - Here is a site for your leisurely perusal: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/whole-milk-powder/

In terms of central bank intervention, a recent rate decline to 2.250 % from 2.500% on 03-10-2016 was likely influenced by significant slow down in the economies of immediate export targets (China, Australia) as well as from a global recessionary momentum that is likely to push that rate further down.

Over the past 12 months, RBNZ intervened 5 times, bringing rate from 3.500% to a current 2.250% at 0.250 increments. I would expect that further rate decline be in the agenda, anticipating further global slow down.

As the differential in Fed and RBNZ rates decreases, expect the $NZD vs. $USD pair to decline significantly further down, to levels defined in the WEEKLY chart:


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
David Alcindor
Alias: 4xForecaster

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Hi David,

Would you consider below a valid WW pattern at H4 level?
As you have pointed out before, point 4 is quite elusive. Would this be the smaller GEO indicating point 4 for the large GEO you have presented in this thread is about to happen?
Thank you as always!

nice chart,
David, a question on the Original analysis; Shouldn't point 4 lie between 1 & 2?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster HamedAghajani
Hello @HamedAghajani - Yes, ideally it should.

+1 Reply
Hello David. I am new to trying to use EW. If you have time, could you let me know if this looks correct. This charting is new as well, so if it doesn't appear I apologize. I would appreciate any advice, your expertise is always so informative.
+2 Reply
Hello @Heelfan23 - Elliott Wave defines the depth of its retracement relative to the preceding swing moves. In EW terms, the counter-trending development (correction) will occur down to a predefined point what was defined in the main-trending development (impulse).

So, to be sure, I would present the entire preceding move, so as to reveal what are all the points that are developing on that segment that is rising in your chart (as shown, it is hard to see whether a bullish impulse occurred at this scale.

This is VERY important since most correction will revisit the terminal-end level of the 4th wave of the preceding, lesser degree move. I would simply compress more of the chart to offer more data, so that this becomes evident.

In other words, the way I can best explain it in terms of inter-related development, EW is always defined relative to the form (impulse or correction?) and function (leading or terminating wave?), where form will always follow function ... This is an intrinsic rule of living organisms, and that is how I tend to approach my understanding how Elliott Wave.

Now, the shape of the wave you have posted does have a 3-3-3-3-3 internal of a triangle, triple ZZ or as shown the W-X-Y-XX-Z wave. Since we can assume this is a corrective wave, the question is whether it is a correction within a correction, as might occur in Wave-4 of a larger impulse, or the end of a correction in Wave-C - Hence we need to see the preceding wave.

This is only a commentary on your scale or size of the window that you have used. I hope this makes sense.

Now, I can look at the chart I posted in a much larger scale and devine where this segment might belong in the entire "organism":

Basically, it appears that we are in the second leg of what appears to be a correction (I had anticipated this move by ascribing a large Z in pink). If you take a look at the largest move, the MAIN trned is DOWN, therefore ALL impulses should be pointing DOWN.

However, in the chart, the recent up-swing in pink appears to be an impulse pointing UP, or counter-trend. This tells you two things:

1 - A correction is likely to occur (which is why I had pre-defined the large Z shape in pink, in anticipation of this corrective development)


2 This anticipated correction can only be ONE type of wave: A Zig-Zag with 5-3-5 internal. I say this can only be a ZZ, simply because only a ZZ offers a correction that a) starts as a 5-wave and b) runs counter-trend (PEARL!).

Another way to also anticipate what that correction might be is to look at the entire preceding wave (here again, we are talking about showing the entire preceding system, since "form follows function" and the nature of the preceding wave (form) will reveal the intention of the subsequent move (function) - Here, I am alluding the EW's "Rule of Alternation".

In its simplest terms, the alternation dictates that IF the preceding correction in Wave-2 was a FLAT, then expect the subsequent correction in Wave-4 to express itself as a ZIG-ZAG - Here is what is anticipated in the chart:

I just woke up, so my brain is a bit jumbled, but I hope I was able to explain both my view and the rule of EW without blurring too much the field for you. Please, let me know where it ceases to make sense, and we can break-down and rebuild from there.


+3 Reply
Heelfan23 4xForecaster
Thank you so much David! once again explained very well.

What I was trying to accomplish in my exercise was to break it down a little more on a smaller time frame. Just trying to see if I am starting to read waves correctly. My analyses was actually based off of this weekly chart that you have posted. More realistically I was trying to do an exercise somewhat off of some of the points you pointed out on your USDCHF 15 min charts. Just by breaking down the waves, within the wave.There is so much to comprehend with all of this, hopefully I am progressing, not digressing. Thank you once again for your kindness, and willingness to help traders like myself that are just trying make sense of it all.

Thank you again,
+2 Reply
You are very welcome @Heelfan23 - I am glad this is helping you dig incrementally further into this field. Keep digging. This is one conceptual field where the rule follower will trade profitably, and the rule breaker will develop an edge.

+2 Reply
ananora23 4xForecaster
Amazing dedication, creativity and integrity. I know it is vague but trust me I admire what you are doing. Impressive. Keep it up. and Thank you for sharing!!!
+2 Reply
Thank you @ananora23 for allowing me to start a new day with these kind, generous words. Much appreciated.

+2 Reply
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