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# \$NZD v. \$USD - Model Eyes 0.55462 | #RBNZ #kiwi #elliottwave

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
2737 29
Friends,

Following is the current #kiwi chart, highlighting a few of the recent market geometries that have developed, such as an Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle, which offered the mechanism of descent to the current levels, whereas a nascent Geo             is now offering its own pacing, affording price a soft landing towards the Predictive/Forecasting Model target, which was defined this past August 17th, 2015 as:

TG-Lox = 0.55462 - 17 AUG 2015

A more developed analysis follows in the discussion thread, looking into greater technical details and offering the argument supporting further downside.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

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Comment: 15 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price has completed a 5-wave advance, implying that a correction is pending at this point. What is important to recognize here is that the current impulse is born out of its own correction from a massive preceding decline. Hence, there are two important points to keep in mind:

1 - A 5-wave correction is ALWAYS a zig-zag, thus expect a 5-3-5 internal development. In this particular case, we have the first 5 of the 5-3-5 construction, so what should ensue is a 3-wave decline resting ABOVE the origin of this new upward impulse.

2 - Any correction that follows a massive move would itself self-correct into significant depths, in the Fibonacci order of 0.618, or most often 0.786 or 0.886 - This is the depth that defines the EAGLE strategic method.

Hence, we need to answer only ONE question here: To what higher-low level would this correction from the current 5-wave of a 5-3-5 bring us to? To answer this question, I have draw a speculative ZZ in the chart, describing a probable decline from the current height, and a decline that would come into close alignment with the consolidation that preceded the current impulse:

If the current top holds, then we are looking at this potential interim development.

Best,

David Alcindor

I have to say that I am particularly biased here, influenced by my own Geo, where points 3 and 4 are almost alway connected by a simple Elliott Wave zig-zag, as speculatively drawn in the chart above.

David
Comment: 21 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price reversed as forecast, expecting a simple reciprocal geometry in the interim, such as an Elliott Wave ZZ, whereas net forecast remains bearish with target intact and in force:

David Alcindor

\$NZDUSD remains on task, expected to weave a simple #elliottwave correction:

\$NZD \$USD #kiwi #RBNZ #forex

David Alcindor
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains closely tethered to dashed forecast pathway ... There is no change in bearish target:

David Alcindor
Comment: 16 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed forecast pathway, nearing approximate support area as shown:

David Alcindor
Comment: 18 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price bouncing off of forecast level, remains tightly adherent to dashed forecast pathway:

David Alcindor

PS: I would pay particular attention to the \$AUDNZD behavior as well - David
Comment: 06 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed arrow forecast. Interim rallying remains high-probability to 0.70118/0.71354 range in the intermediate term. Long-term remains bearish with L/T target pending at 0.55462, as defined this past August 17th, 2015:

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 19 JAN 2016 - Chart Update:

Rallying to forecast 0.70118/0.71354 range still in force:

David Alcindor
Comment: 02 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tightly tethered to dashed arrow forecast; Now nears target range of 0.70118/0.71354:

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 24 APR 2016 - Chart update / Tech-Note:

Again, price remains strictly adherent to the forecast dashed line, ultimately hitting the 0.70118/0.71354 target range:

Predictive/Forecasting Model remains unanswered per open target pending at the bearish 0.55462 level, defined last August 2015.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 09 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed forecast lines, remains encapsulated within the 0.70118/0.71254 forecast range:
Comment: ... (cont'd) ...

Bears prevail - Bearish TG-Lox = 0.55462 defined last August 17th, 2015 remains intact and in force.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 26 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

26 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Looking at the H4 level, a WW/Geo has completed, and price appears to rally slightly from the "Hit". Students of the CROW Code will see that a reversal is under way at this and scaled-down level, in support of the original WEEKLY chart, which continues to eye a bearish target defined last 2015 Summer (17 AUG 2015) as TG-Lox = 0.55462 - Link to original target setting in the comment field: http://bit.ly/2ahZUBt .:

For the fundamentally driven investors at this larger scale, look for the global dairy trade pricing in whole milk power over a 5-year period is shaping up into a bearish impulse in terms of an Elliott Wave formation, with recent oscillation terminating a 4th wave correction. Further downside is expected to carve lower lows, and thus to influence \$NZD to carve lower lows - Here is a site for your leisurely perusal: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/whole-milk-powder/

In terms of central bank intervention, a recent rate decline to 2.250 % from 2.500% on 03-10-2016 was likely influenced by significant slow down in the economies of immediate export targets (China, Australia) as well as from a global recessionary momentum that is likely to push that rate further down.

Over the past 12 months, RBNZ intervened 5 times, bringing rate from 3.500% to a current 2.250% at 0.250 increments. I would expect that further rate decline be in the agenda, anticipating further global slow down.

As the differential in Fed and RBNZ rates decreases, expect the \$NZD vs. \$USD pair to decline significantly further down, to levels defined in the WEEKLY chart:

Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com

## Related Ideas

15 OCT 2015 - \$NZDUSD - WEEKLY Chart:

I was not able to find a good chart or correlating tool to exact the Global Dairy Trade Index chart, since this is one rare fundamental data that I do track in conjunction with the Kiwi (here is the site where the data is offered, but none of which can be imported into TradingView: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/ )

In any case, the WEEKLY chart is tracing a bullish 5-wave impulse. In the context of a counter-trend in which this is occurring, there is only one contender that would carry this internal structure: An Elliott Wave zigzag ("ZZ").

Looking at the grand scheme, it appears that we are in a larger consolidation, where price rose into interlocking waves, first starting from a rising ZZ (dashed pink in the following chart):

Next, this large ZZ linked into an Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle. This internal 5-wave structure left its Point-e overshoot signature before falling into the depths that defines the recent price action.

Finally, we are dealing with the Geo, which was born literally in the entrails of the Elliott Wave preceding geometry, tracing out in BLUE its Points 1, 2 and 3 as most definitive anchors, whereas we are now dealing with the question of Point-4, which is by nature of this geometry, the most fluid point.

What we have to rely upon as a potential alternate anchor is lower-high structure highlighted by the pink arrow:

Yet, using the Predictive/Forecasting Model, a ceiling is defined at the 0.70118 to 0.71354 range. These values are taken from a larger timeframe that what the Model uses as its normal calibration, so there is a loss of probability that is worth taking into account here.

What that same Predictive/Forecasting Model offers, though, is a Qual-Target, which was defined last August 17th, 2015 as:

- TG-Lox = 0.55462 - 17 AUG 2015

This value is one I would keep in mind as price rallies into an overhead trendline and R/S level that is corroborated by the Model in the aforementioned range values - This combination may not pin-point to a very area of reversal, but come together to impose a combination of technical elements (structural and quantitative) that is likely to weigh down upon any further advance as price nears that vicinity.

Note that reverse-engineering the 1.618 Fibonacci extension also places some added emphasis on the probability of price reversing near the top of the Predictive/Forecasting Model range of 0.70118 to 0.71354, as a Fib-matrix zero-line projects the 1.618-Fib extension in the vicinity of the Model's TG-Lox = 0.55462 predefined level from this past August 2015.

OVERALL:

Rally is likely temporary in terms and scale of a weekly chart. The current rally will likely express a ZZ with 5-3-5 internals, as well as a simpler consolidation than the prior complex correction, based on Elliott Wave's Rule of Alternation.

More on this as the market digest its dairy data.

Best,

David Alcindor
15 OCT 2015 - ANNOUNCEMENT: "Brain Chatter Rooms"

There are several "Chatrooms" in which I do most of the "brain chatter" with myself. These rooms are more like back-stage "ateliers" where I prepare trades in advance. You are welcome to wipe the dust off of the windows and peek in. The glass is rather thick, so I rarely reply to taps on the glass or even shouts from the door. I work very late hours in the ER and I use these moments to collect thoughts, ideas, concepts, and lay it out there in the open.

Following are a few of the rooms where I prepare trading ideas before they become shared on Twitter, Linked-In, Google, Facebook, StockTwits and TradingView communities - So, if you want to have first peek, feel free to stop on by. If I don't reply and it smells like coffee, it's because I might be in the basement, hammering other charts in another "brain chatter" room:

\$BTC | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:

\$GBP | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:

\$CAD | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:

\$EUR | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:

\$NZD | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:

Metals | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:

Stocks | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:

Indices | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:

Commodities

* * * Archives of Hit Targets * * *

===================================

* * * NEW PATTERN METHODOLOGY * * *

ATHENA - Geometric Methodology Of An Elliott Wave Pattern:
... Letting the reciprocal lines tell you where to hold, stop and go

Here is the latest room I opened - Here too, not much peer to peer chatter. Just free-sharing a new pattern methodology. If you liked the "Geo", then have fun with this one:

ATHENA | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
===================================

Feel free to capture and share links - I do apologize ahead for not immediately or rather rarely replying to inquiries within these chatroom - Best is to contact me through the threads, such as this one, where the discussion can reach a far greater number of traders and benefit not just the chatroom participants, but the larger community of traders here on TradingView and outside.

Also, these chatrooms are not spaces where I would engage traders into circular arguments, as I really have no opinion of the underlying market for which the analyses are provided. This is all educational, and if you need real trading advice, seek that of a certified professional - I am a non-certified life-time student of the market. I am the author of several proprietary (i.e.: not for sharing) patterns (Great White, Janus, Euclid) and lesson-based shared methods (EAGLE, AFT), but I do spend most of my time double tasking between broken people and breaking markets.

Best,

David Alcindor

PS: If you like certain charts, ideas, concepts, then given it a thumbs-up so I know which one to delve into and which one to lay off of. And, if you think these are ideas that can advance the edification of a peer, then I thank you ahead for sharing - I don't make money via memberships. Just trading my own ideas and free-sharing ... Just a better credential, if I may say so.

David
4xForecaster
Thanks David for being so generous with your work and ideas.
Wow your analysis is way more advanced than mine, but we do share a similar target area for a short!
15 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price has completed a 5-wave advance, implying that a correction is pending at this point. What is important to recognize here is that the current impulse is born out of its own correction from a massive preceding decline. Hence, there are two important points to keep in mind:

1 - A 5-wave correction is ALWAYS a zig-zag, thus expect a 5-3-5 internal development. In this particular case, we have the first 5 of the 5-3-5 construction, so what should ensue is a 3-wave decline resting ABOVE the origin of this new upward impulse.

2 - Any correction that follows a massive move would itself self-correct into significant depths, in the Fibonacci order of 0.618, or most often 0.786 or 0.886 - This is the depth that defines the EAGLE strategic method.

Hence, we need to answer only ONE question here: To what higher-low level would this correction from the current 5-wave of a 5-3-5 bring us to? To answer this question, I have draw a speculative ZZ in the chart, describing a probable decline from the current height, and a decline that would come into close alignment with the consolidation that preceded the current impulse:

If the current top holds, then we are looking at this potential interim development.

Best,

David Alcindor
4xForecaster

I have to say that I am particularly biased here, influenced by my own Geo, where points 3 and 4 are almost alway connected by a simple Elliott Wave zig-zag, as speculatively drawn in the chart above.

David
Hi David. Would appreciate if you can also include USD/SGD currency pairs in your chatroom. I always fascinated with your genius analysis! Thanks
ccake28
Hello @ccake28 - Thank you for your kind remarks and trust in my analysis - I already started an analysis on that one, but not a room - Following is the chart and analysis in question - price reach the most immediate target and reversed as forecast. That was the S/T expectation. In the long timeframe, I expect strengthening as per bullish targets still pending:

\$USDSGD - Click on following chart to get to predictive/forecasting analyses:

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Here is the DAILY chart highlighting the recent short-term ("S/T") target hit and probable ensuing pathway. The hgher targets are likely to occur but on a delayed timeframe.:

The chatroom is for pairs, indices, stocks or any price-moving asset that I consider not yet ready to be published. I let traders look at the "birth of an idea", but I really want to keep these ideas under lid until they reach a quality level of probability. Since the USDSGD has alread been published, it had already reached that level of probable play, so it is published and publicly shared.

If I come across some other interesting play, it is likely to be looked at in the chatrooms, and then shared on a thread, such as in this one. If you have other request for unpublished ideas, and wish that I looked at it, feel free to request such chart. I may or may not look at it immediately, but I will do my best to respond as soon as I possibly can.

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Thanks so much David for getting back to me. I really appreciate your generosity!
ccake28
Of course, you are very welcome @ccake28 - I appreciate your taking time to read through these analyses.

David
4xForecaster
Hi David. Just want to reconfirm with you, I'm still seeing USDSGD will go to 1.31 in the end of wave 4. Do you also see the same? Sorry for keep on asking, but I learnt a lot from your analysis!
21 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price reversed as forecast, expecting a simple reciprocal geometry in the interim, such as an Elliott Wave ZZ, whereas net forecast remains bearish with target intact and in force:

David Alcindor
David I love how you put so much time and effort into every idea, with such a crystal clear analysis. It's so generous for you to spend so much time creating such good ideas just to help others here on Tradingview.

I really appreciate all of your work on here, and I'm sure everyone else does too.
Thanks for posting
Tom
Tom_Killick
Thank you @Tom_Killick for your appreciation. There is nothing else I'd rather do. It fills me day at home and night at work with great pleasure.

David
4xForecaster
I second what Tom says; your analyses are a great learning tool. Thank you for your time & effort.
Sk8Forex
Thank you @Sk8Forex - I am glad someone is ready these and appreciate the content.

David
Im equally bearish, long term. Thanks, Dave
moorekapital
Hello David. I am new to trying to use EW. If you have time, could you let me know if this looks correct. This charting is new as well, so if it doesn't appear I apologize. I would appreciate any advice, your expertise is always so informative.
Heelfan23
Hello @Heelfan23 - Elliott Wave defines the depth of its retracement relative to the preceding swing moves. In EW terms, the counter-trending development (correction) will occur down to a predefined point what was defined in the main-trending development (impulse).

So, to be sure, I would present the entire preceding move, so as to reveal what are all the points that are developing on that segment that is rising in your chart (as shown, it is hard to see whether a bullish impulse occurred at this scale.

This is VERY important since most correction will revisit the terminal-end level of the 4th wave of the preceding, lesser degree move. I would simply compress more of the chart to offer more data, so that this becomes evident.

In other words, the way I can best explain it in terms of inter-related development, EW is always defined relative to the form (impulse or correction?) and function (leading or terminating wave?), where form will always follow function ... This is an intrinsic rule of living organisms, and that is how I tend to approach my understanding how Elliott Wave.

Now, the shape of the wave you have posted does have a 3-3-3-3-3 internal of a triangle, triple ZZ or as shown the W-X-Y-XX-Z wave. Since we can assume this is a corrective wave, the question is whether it is a correction within a correction, as might occur in Wave-4 of a larger impulse, or the end of a correction in Wave-C - Hence we need to see the preceding wave.

This is only a commentary on your scale or size of the window that you have used. I hope this makes sense.

Now, I can look at the chart I posted in a much larger scale and devine where this segment might belong in the entire "organism":

Basically, it appears that we are in the second leg of what appears to be a correction (I had anticipated this move by ascribing a large Z in pink). If you take a look at the largest move, the MAIN trned is DOWN, therefore ALL impulses should be pointing DOWN.

However, in the chart, the recent up-swing in pink appears to be an impulse pointing UP, or counter-trend. This tells you two things:

1 - A correction is likely to occur (which is why I had pre-defined the large Z shape in pink, in anticipation of this corrective development)

AND

2 This anticipated correction can only be ONE type of wave: A Zig-Zag with 5-3-5 internal. I say this can only be a ZZ, simply because only a ZZ offers a correction that a) starts as a 5-wave and b) runs counter-trend (PEARL!).

Another way to also anticipate what that correction might be is to look at the entire preceding wave (here again, we are talking about showing the entire preceding system, since "form follows function" and the nature of the preceding wave (form) will reveal the intention of the subsequent move (function) - Here, I am alluding the EW's "Rule of Alternation".

In its simplest terms, the alternation dictates that IF the preceding correction in Wave-2 was a FLAT, then expect the subsequent correction in Wave-4 to express itself as a ZIG-ZAG - Here is what is anticipated in the chart:

I just woke up, so my brain is a bit jumbled, but I hope I was able to explain both my view and the rule of EW without blurring too much the field for you. Please, let me know where it ceases to make sense, and we can break-down and rebuild from there.

Best,

David
4xForecaster
Thank you so much David! once again explained very well.

What I was trying to accomplish in my exercise was to break it down a little more on a smaller time frame. Just trying to see if I am starting to read waves correctly. My analyses was actually based off of this weekly chart that you have posted. More realistically I was trying to do an exercise somewhat off of some of the points you pointed out on your USDCHF 15 min charts. Just by breaking down the waves, within the wave.There is so much to comprehend with all of this, hopefully I am progressing, not digressing. Thank you once again for your kindness, and willingness to help traders like myself that are just trying make sense of it all.

Thank you again,
Scott
Heelfan23
You are very welcome @Heelfan23 - I am glad this is helping you dig incrementally further into this field. Keep digging. This is one conceptual field where the rule follower will trade profitably, and the rule breaker will develop an edge.

David
4xForecaster
Amazing dedication, creativity and integrity. I know it is vague but trust me I admire what you are doing. Impressive. Keep it up. and Thank you for sharing!!!
ananora23
Thank you @ananora23 for allowing me to start a new day with these kind, generous words. Much appreciated.

David
David, a question on the Original analysis; Shouldn't point 4 lie between 1 & 2?
HamedAghajani
Hello @HamedAghajani - Yes, ideally it should.

David
nice chart,
Hi David,

Would you consider below a valid WW pattern at H4 level?
As you have pointed out before, point 4 is quite elusive. Would this be the smaller GEO indicating point 4 for the large GEO you have presented in this thread is about to happen?
Thank you as always!

Regards,
Sheng
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