ForceFollower
Short

NZDUSD Bearish Forces Prevail

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
I expect to see new lows here, as this market looks like it's going to hit the median line or even proceed lower. The NZD has been very weak, whereas the USD - very strong. I know, there's a major low to the left and the phase of the momentum cycle speak for looking to go long. Nevertheless, I can't see buyers stepping in yet. The path of least resistance seems to be directed downwards.
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Disclaimer:
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
Hey do u think it wil reverse back to 0.835?
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I wonder what this kiwi is up to. The NZD is getting stronger, but it's still very weak. Anyway, it has stopped and reversed at exactly ret-0.618, so I think it has already marked the lowest low and it's on its way up. It would be too short time for a correction to go down again. So I think it's heading for 0.844 now.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
Hi Force, do u think there will be a renounce around this area or continue its downside momentum ?
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Hard to say. The candlesticks look bullish, I admit, but it is still the strongest trend. My strategy would not allow me to think about it in bullish terms at all. So, it's probably going to keep falling. However, if it goes up, I'd go short again at about 0.84.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
u mean short from 0.84 to 0.83?
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Perhaps it'll get that far (down to 0.83). But what I've got tested with a high probability is - if it makes a rally now, ie., goes up to 0.84, stops and reverses there, then take profit at about 50% retracement of that rally. However, if at that time it's still in the strongest trend (as it is now), then you can take profit even lower. Now though, at this very moment, I can't tell yet what the conditions are going to be like later on, so we have to wait.
+1 Reply
Sam0101 ForceFollower
is true
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Sam0101 Sam0101
Hey force, it stops exactly on the 0.84 and reverse. Good ! Are you going to short it from now to 0.84 and above?
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Hi, it is at a resistance level and might fall indeed, but I'm not so sure it's done rising. It's crossed a bear trend line to the left, got a bull trend line below, and the momentum is in a cycle that's favourable to buyers. It is bearish though, no doubt about that (esp. because the NZD is weak and the USD is strong), but the odds are only slightly weighted towards the bears - that's not a trading opportunity for me.
snapshot

snapshot
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
Is quite confuse because the current situation is situated in both direction
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