ForceFollower
Short

NZDUSD Bearish Forces Prevail

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
381 43 6
I expect to see new lows here, as this market looks like it's going to hit the median line or even proceed lower. The NZD has been very weak, whereas the USD - very strong. I know, there's a major low to the left and the phase of the momentum cycle speak for looking to go long. Nevertheless, I can't see buyers stepping in yet. The path of least resistance seems to be directed downwards.
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Disclaimer:
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex . I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
motleifaul
2 years ago
I still prefer the uptrend which I consider as valid. Mind that we are close to the median lines of both of your falling pitchforks and a longer lasting horizontal resistance as well.
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ForceFollower motleifaul
2 years ago
Thank you for your comment, as usual. I still find it bearish though. :)
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Casey_Yeo
2 years ago
0.8400 will be the line in the sand here. I will say it is the bull's last line of defence. The bulls may not give it up easily.
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ForceFollower Casey_Yeo
2 years ago
Thank you for comment, casey. I agree, it's the bull's last bastion. Now, let's see, if it holds. ;)
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Sam0101
2 years ago
Hey force, so that means there will be another wave down around 83.7 before a correction is being imposed.
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Pretty much so, GohSam. I still hold my bearish view of this market.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
yeah thats i thought too. Before we getting further low down to around 0.82. I think we will have a correction before any further drop
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Anything can happen, but bear in mind that NZDUSD is currently in the strongest trend among the majors.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
strongest trend among majors mean?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
It means that - measured with my methodology - the NZDUSD pair is the vehicle that couples the relatively strongest major currency (USD) with the weakest one (NZD). This relation has been observed since the late hours of last Friday. I mentioned that fact in comments to my prior NU trade idea as well.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Yeah l wan see when the selling off pressure end. Hopefully theres a pause n correction at around 0.837 ( like u mentioned before) thanks
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
Also consider this: http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/market-chartist-view-/2014/08/13.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
hey force, i can't really get the movement of kiwi. is it the correction is on its way?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
I think so - it couldn't move any way for many hours. Being so weak it should have kept on going down, but it failed to do it. Thus as the declining momentum phase was over, it started to correct. But it's still relatively very weak (only GBPUSD is in a stronger trend), so I think the correction is going to be quite small.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
so if that the case where do u think it will up to for tmr core retail report? 0.855?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
You're right - last time (2014-06-06) the correction stopped at about 0.855, so it may stop there once again. If it keeps on climbing higher, the natural ultimate resistance is at 0.8646.
However, I don't think it'll go that high; rather, I'd expect this rally to stop and reverse at 0.85. Anyway, I think the high at 0.8534 is going to hold for time.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
i think the chart tell something. Cause the movement now is so unstable that i dunno which way its going.....
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Goodjob force. Do u think it will at least it will stay somewhere 0.8535 before drop effective ( like u mentioned drop when at 0,85). It takes roughly two weeks to pull up from hell 0.84 area. Do u think it will give up and drop once reach 0.85?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
In a smaller time frame the (corrective) trend is still up. The correction is not over yet, because the bull trend line still holds. There is some 70% probability (based on my stats) that it's done though and - if it happens to be true - there's a very high chance it's going to retrace by 50% or even 61.8%. Me, I'm going to take profit just above 50%.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
so which means u going to shot it at around 0.851 down to 0.846?
N so what happen afterward, whats ur look ?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
It depends on how it responds to those 50% and 62% levels. So, I can't tell now. Let's see, if buyers show up and hold price above 0.845...
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
hey force, US news have impact kiwi. Whats now?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Business as usual. It's slowly moving toward the dark red median line and the blue dashed trend line.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Great call force, so u think it will resides on 0.837 ? What happen after it reach 0.837
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Sam0101 Sam0101
2 years ago
i think it will resides somewhere around 0.83400 - 500 then bullish again?
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Sam0101 Sam0101
2 years ago
hey force, i think now it should at least bounce back? it reached the red line u pointed.
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
OK. Price has hit the median line and the dashed bull trend line. It has clearly found some support over there, but it's still very bearish. Currently the strongest bear market of all the majors. So, it can overextend to the down side and hit the 0.618 retracement at 0.835. That's the best I can expect at this point.
Next up? Well, where are the strong buyers? At 0.810-0.815 - but that's very far. Perhaps the demand will start to consolidate around 0.835? That's actually where some Fib levels coinside, but that's not for sure.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
yeah i was thinking on 0.834 - 0.835 then bounce back at least 0.5 retracement
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Yeah, perhaps even 0.833-0.835. What's going to happen next - it's too soon to tell for me; I wouldn't expect to see any new swing high before another (corrective) swing down.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
i think correction is on its way?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Yes, indeed. A nice short entry opportunity will be presenting soon.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Hmm... What do u mean. Now is stil not the opportunity ?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Of course you can enter short now, but here's what I mean. Based on my statistical data:
- at 0.843 there is a 55% chance of reversal back down,
- at 0.844 this chance goes up to 75%,
So, the higher you enter the higher the odds of succes and the better your trade will be.
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Sam0101
2 years ago
Hey do u think it wil reverse back to 0.835?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
I wonder what this kiwi is up to. The NZD is getting stronger, but it's still very weak. Anyway, it has stopped and reversed at exactly ret-0.618, so I think it has already marked the lowest low and it's on its way up. It would be too short time for a correction to go down again. So I think it's heading for 0.844 now.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Hi Force, do u think there will be a renounce around this area or continue its downside momentum ?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Hard to say. The candlesticks look bullish, I admit, but it is still the strongest trend. My strategy would not allow me to think about it in bullish terms at all. So, it's probably going to keep falling. However, if it goes up, I'd go short again at about 0.84.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
u mean short from 0.84 to 0.83?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Perhaps it'll get that far (down to 0.83). But what I've got tested with a high probability is - if it makes a rally now, ie., goes up to 0.84, stops and reverses there, then take profit at about 50% retracement of that rally. However, if at that time it's still in the strongest trend (as it is now), then you can take profit even lower. Now though, at this very moment, I can't tell yet what the conditions are going to be like later on, so we have to wait.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
is true
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Sam0101 Sam0101
2 years ago
Hey force, it stops exactly on the 0.84 and reverse. Good ! Are you going to short it from now to 0.84 and above?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Hi, it is at a resistance level and might fall indeed, but I'm not so sure it's done rising. It's crossed a bear trend line to the left, got a bull trend line below, and the momentum is in a cycle that's favourable to buyers. It is bearish though, no doubt about that (esp. because the NZD is weak and the USD is strong), but the odds are only slightly weighted towards the bears - that's not a trading opportunity for me.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Is quite confuse because the current situation is situated in both direction
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