I expect to see new lows here, as this market looks like it's going to hit the median line or even proceed lower. The NZD has been very weak, whereas the USD - very strong. I know, there's a major low to the left and the phase of the momentum cycle speak for looking to go long. Nevertheless, I can't see buyers stepping in yet. The path of least resistance seems to be directed downwards. ----------- Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
OK. Price has hit the median line and the dashed bull trend line. It has clearly found some support over there, but it's still very bearish. Currently the strongest bear market of all the majors. So, it can overextend to the down side and hit the 0.618 retracement at 0.835. That's the best I can expect at this point.
Next up? Well, where are the strong buyers? At 0.810-0.815 - but that's very far. Perhaps the demand will start to consolidate around 0.835? That's actually where some Fib levels coinside, but that's not for sure.
Sam0101
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yeah i was thinking on 0.834 - 0.835 then bounce back at least 0.5 retracement
ForceFollower
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Yeah, perhaps even 0.833-0.835. What's going to happen next - it's too soon to tell for me; I wouldn't expect to see any new swing high before another (corrective) swing down.
Sam0101
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i think correction is on its way?
ForceFollower
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Yes, indeed. A nice short entry opportunity will be presenting soon.
Sam0101
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Hmm... What do u mean. Now is stil not the opportunity ?
ForceFollower
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Of course you can enter short now, but here's what I mean. Based on my statistical data:
- at 0.843 there is a 55% chance of reversal back down,
- at 0.844 this chance goes up to 75%,
So, the higher you enter the higher the odds of succes and the better your trade will be.
Sam0101
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Hey force, so that means there will be another wave down around 83.7 before a correction is being imposed.
ForceFollower
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Pretty much so, GohSam. I still hold my bearish view of this market.
Sam0101
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yeah thats i thought too. Before we getting further low down to around 0.82. I think we will have a correction before any further drop
Next up? Well, where are the strong buyers? At 0.810-0.815 - but that's very far. Perhaps the demand will start to consolidate around 0.835? That's actually where some Fib levels coinside, but that's not for sure.