So to give context about this pair, we saw a reversal pattern signal the last swing low before "2". Once price broke out higher past swing high "1", it opened the door for higher prices adding confirmation that the reversal pattern was legitimate. As PA developed, we can see a 5 wave pattern developing. The 3rd wave completed once it hit the 38.2% FIB level. The first attack at that level did not hit, but this time after the RBZ decided not to cut rates, it shot up and tagged the level. I went short here and plan to hold until the 61.8% level, which would finish off the 4th wave as it touches "1". This is also the bottom of the range that we are currently in (blue box). The last 2 touches of the top of the range created strong sell-offs lower, with each touch creating stronger moves down. To bring this together, the reversal pattern target is usually the swing high in which the down move started from, which is shown by the level marked with "5". To justify a move there, we can use current PA context. When breaking out of a range, we can assume the distance it will breakout is almost equivalent to the size of the range itself. If you see, the range that I am expecting is the same size as the distance to our target. Once price reaches that level, we can have a limit order waiting to go short as in the large scheme of things, we are in a bear market with that level being a nice level to get in short. Target would be the bottom where the first wave started from.