FxWirePro

NZD/USD Chartpack - Technicals & Trade Setup

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Can it be bullish reversal for NZD/USD after breach below triple top neckline? Trade one-touch call but short hedge ahead of Fed and RBNZ:

Streaks of  NZDUSD  rallies that have now gone above DMAs upon doji formation at 0.65250 levels. On minor trend of this pair, stiff resistance is observed at 0.6711 levels.

Shooting star , hanging man and bearish engulfing patterns have occurred at around this resistance level , consequently, plummeted price below DMAs in the recent past.

But for now, more rallies seem to be on cards upon bullish MACD crossover and intensified buying momentum, DMA is yet to clarify though (refer daily plotting). Hence, amid the mild bullish sentiments, it is not wise to conclude this as bullish trend reversal. 

On the major trend, the pair forms triple top pattern with top1 at 0.7485, top2 at 07558, top3 at 07437 and neckline at 06787 levels.

Consequently, bears are extending price slumps. Please observe steep slumps below EMAs (refer monthly chart). Although a hammer pattern occurred at 0.6817 level that attempts to counter at neckline, while both leading and lagging indicators have been bearish bias.

For now, bearish EMA and MACD crossovers on this timeframe indicate the downswings are most likely to extend further. To substantiate this bearish stance, both leading oscillators show constant downward convergence to the prevailing price slumps that signal intensified bearish momentum ahead of next week’s RBNZ monetary policy (scheduled on September 26th).

Any failure swing at stiff resistance (0.6711 levels), downtrend seems most likely on bearish crossovers signaled by the lagging indicators.

Trade tips: On daily trading grounds, at spot reference: 0.6658 levels, contemplating above technical rationale it is wise to buy one-touch call options with strikes at 0.6684 levels.

Alternatively, on hedging grounds, we advocate shorting futures contracts of mid-month tenors as the underlying spot FX likely to target southwards 0.65 levels in the medium run.

Writers in a futures contract are expected to maintain margins in order to open and maintain a short futures position.

FxWirePro Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's Hourly USD Spot Index was at -28 (which is bearish ), while Hourly NZD Spot Index was at 73 ( bullish ) at 09:53 GMT
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