Global growth outlook concerns continue to be the topic of discussion at the RBNZ as to the level of impact on NZ exports despite positive underlying fundamentals.
Our view - Solid underlying fundamentals including, GDP/Inflation ticking higher, exports steadily increasing over the financial year and trade balance surplus - Households remain optimistic as housing market activity picks up - Business confidence is recovering as the government signals commitments on infrastructure investment - Hedge funds remain reasonably flat in the futures market indicating funds are yet to pour into the upside trade - Macro swing targets of 0.74xx into VPOC and 0.80xx with reversal occurring on buyside liquidity into 0.62xx - Technical indicators suggesting oversold momentum conditions
We begin loading buyside exposure into the 0.62xx zone across both our macro and directional portfolios
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Portier Capital Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
@kelvin29, AUD sits on a price floor at the moment. We see it correcting higher in the short/medium term before any meaningful unwind. Risk off assets (Dollar, Swiss, Yen & Gold) should remain bid as long as the coronavirus remains on the headlines.