There is no major economic data of NZD next week. Thus I consider hidden dynamic governing N/U last week.
We know that NZ is a commodity export country like Australia and Canada, NZD is affected by price of gold , silver , copper . If such go down due to weak demand, it will cause pressure on NZD greatly. We can see the downtrend of such recent weeks. So if USD has not much effect on N/U, commodity price would play governing role.
Moreover, N/U has a corelation with A/U. A/U is being downtrend which I showed in this chart:
Next week,in USA, there are two major events :
- Consumer Confidence on Tuesday
- Durable Good Orders on Wednesday.
I think there will be good news for USA because of many aspects.Firstly, Retail Sales last week was very good -->; Consumer confidence and durable good oders might be good as a result. Secondly, US economic data proved the recovery of economy is very positive : GDP, labor market, retail sales, PMI --->; pull N/U down.
In short, there are three elements cause for N/U:
- Commodity price
- of A/U
- Good economic data from US.
- : Price offically no longer lies in the bulllish pattern --->; Downtrend.
- Last Friday, I can see Price tried to escape . Once price is below , the downtrend will be more clearer.
- N/U broke SMA50, EMA50, SMA20. It tried to break very strong : SMA200, but it was failed. And I am also waiting SMA20 cuts EMA50 : This is a strong sell signal, I think it might happen next week.
- (14.3.3) : I show on the chart: There is a hidden divergence between Price pattern and patern. And the result of this hidden divergence is Sell-off signal for N/U.
- (14) : I see the downtrend clearly. It will be below value 30 soon.
Summarize all information, I think N/U will reach to 0.81 level I show on the chart. N/U will struggle to break this level.
Target: 0.81 , 88 pips from current price.
Stop Loss: 0.826
"Please try out my application I write for Forex traders to help them calculate many values such as lot size, pip,margin, : https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=sforex.solution "