Idea for N/U next week.

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
219 2 1
Fundamental Analysis:
There is no major economic data of NZD next week. Thus I consider hidden dynamic governing N/U last week.
We know that NZ             is a commodity export country like Australia and Canada, NZD is affected by price of gold             , silver             , copper             . If such commodities go down due to weak demand, it will cause pressure on NZD greatly. We can see the downtrend of such commodities recent weeks. So if USD has not much effect on N/U, commodity price would play governing role.

Moreover, N/U has a corelation with A/U. A/U is being downtrend which I showed in this chart:

Next week,in USA, there are two major events :
- Consumer Confidence on Tuesday
- Durable Good Orders on Wednesday.

I think there will be good news for USA because of many aspects.Firstly, Retail Sales last week was very good -->; Consumer confidence and durable good oders might be good as a result. Secondly, US economic data proved the recovery of economy is very positive : GDP, labor market, retail sales, PMI --->; pull N/U down.

In short, there are three elements cause bearish trend for N/U:
- Commodity price
- Bearish trend of A/U
- Good economic data from US.

Technical Analysis:
- Andrew's Pitchfork : Price offically no longer lies in the bulllish Andrew's Pitchfork pattern --->; Downtrend.
- Last Friday, I can see Price tried to escape Ichimoku Cloud . Once price is below Ichimoku cloud , the downtrend will be more clearer.
- N/U broke SMA50, EMA50, SMA20. It tried to break very strong support level : SMA200, but it was failed. And I am also waiting SMA20 cuts EMA50 : This is a strong sell signal, I think it might happen next week.
- Stoch (14.3.3) : I show on the chart: There is a hidden divergence between Price pattern and Stoch patern. And the result of this hidden divergence is Sell-off signal for N/U.
- RSI (14) : I see the downtrend clearly. It will be below RSI value 30 soon.

Summarize all information, I think N/U will reach to 0.81 level I show on the chart. N/U will struggle to break this level.

Target: 0.81 , 88 pips from current price.
Stop Loss: 0.826

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Offically, N/Z breaks 0.81 level. Exactly. ha ha...
NZDUSD touched 0.8102 . I close position. Just two pips from the target : 0.81. It will touch 0.81 soon.
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