FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
Is it rolling over or only correcting in order to make a new high next week? It's a tough question. We have seen three drives to the top and the trend line broken and then tested as resistance. This June rally still hasn't retraced by 38.2%, and yet it's in an up trend, and may be on it's way to 1.618 projection of the prior major swing up (market has paused at the 1.472 projection). The NZD has been relatively strong recently (though losing momentum ), but the USD - not as weak as a week before. So a decline to the 0.382 retracement seems to be quite a likely scenario.
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex . I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
imaxcare
2 years ago
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ForceFollower imaxcare
2 years ago
You really got me wondering, what you actually mean with your GBPNZD chart here. Do the consecutive closes below 200 SMA in GBPNZD imply some imminent price action to NZDUSD? By the way, 17 closes are close to nothing, neither few nor many. It is rather the horizontal SMA200 that implies a rangebound price action.

In GBPNZD the level I find very important is 1.9755. I think it's acting a bit like a magnet on price now, pulling it to itself. But 1.96 is also a key level, so it comes hard for price to break out and go higher.
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Sam0101
2 years ago
hi force follower, i think for the scenario now it will drop to around 0.87 or even lower before rally to 0.882. for what we see now it seems weak to break over
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Thanks for your comment, as usual, I appreciate it.
If it falls (as I expect), I don't think it's going to stop and reverse at 0.87 - there's little support on that level. That's why I think it's going to decline to 0.865.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
For the case now, past 30 - 40 mins, what do u think for this kind of scene. it likes trade range in between 0.875 to 0.873.
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
It says almost nothing. That's why some traders call "inside bars" "nothing bars". Decreased volatility may also portend a shift in direction.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
hey force, great job ! it down to around 0.87 n rallying all the way to 0.88. so the next target is 0.8826 or break above 0.88 is a false break?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
I've been asking myself the same question over and over again. Given the kiwi's strength, it was rather pretending to be a fakeout, ie. it is robust and gong to new highs. However, I need to wait to see the next 4h bar - if the sellers crop up again, pressing price down, then it was a fakeout, otherwise, kiwi is on its way to test the high of 2011-07-24, which is at 0.8838!
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
It keeps heading for the 1.618 projection at 0.88267. Currently NZDUSD is one of the strongest pairs.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Hi force, the NZD seems trading in range. will it project to around 0.8858 before any corrections are made?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
I don't think so. It looks "correction-heavy". But the damn thing is very strong. If support at 0.8773 holds, it can do it. Otherwise, a deeper correction may occur, down to 38.2% (0.867).
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Thanks force. coz i hav a reference on this
NZD/USD - nearly there!
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Sure. :) Thanks for your comments, as usual.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
hi force, great call. m looking for tp around 0.865. Whats ur call?
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Sam0101 Sam0101
2 years ago
Hey force, do u think there will be a pop up rebound around 0.865 ?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Hi, now I'm back from holidays. :-) It looks that you were right about the pop up rebound - it retraced 38.2% of the decline. Is it going to do it again? The support seems to be strong, so why not?
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
o hi happy holidays. i was wondering these few days. And today it would be the kiwi rate decision and it would somewhat hawkish which would lead to bearish according to some experts. Was pondering on this and great u are back. What do u think for the support and resistance in this case for now.
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
The trend is still up, although the correction continues. We may even see some new lows, but the decline should stop at or just below the 50% retracement (or, at worst, at the lower median line parallel). Then I expect the up trend to resume to make at least 50% of the ongoing correction, if not 61.8% of it.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
o great. can u share ur latest of this pair with us? thanks
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Sure. I think it's going to develop this way:
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Thanks force, its always great to hear and ultimately learn from you.
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
It's been a pleasure.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Force, I have to give u a big LIKE if allow. Thanks and i salute you. But from my perspective, the support i can see is lie at 0.852 ? Will it be ?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
I agree. 0.862 is clearly not going to hold, so it's going down to the lower MLH or lower to your 0.852 area.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago