NZDUSD - Is the Rally... Fake or for Real?

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Current price action could be a fake move to the upside... Unless 0.8515 proves to be a tested support level .

Dashed light grey Median lines plots the potential down slope (but could be invalidated if price goes higher).

I expect the upside move to be capped not higher than 0.875 - 0.877. If price doesn't break this level, expect a test of support at 0.852, which if gives way could go all the way to 0.8265 to complete the broadening triangle's target.

Also look for the daily close. A pinbar kind of set up near 0.864 - 0.863 could give some clues.
With ascending triangles (incl. broadening ones) , price often retraces from 150% or halfway back to 50% if in the past, a candle(s) closed above the 50% level. This is what I suspect is happening right now. So i'm strongly hoping for a pinbar kind of pattern today (close lower than 0.863). Not a big fan of shorting Kiwi, so i'll have to suffice with a pending long order near 82 - 84 levels. Same thing is happening with NZDJPY too (descending triangle with a retracement post RBNZ).

I think price will definitely drop and current price action could catch eager beavers into going long at current levels, which is quite risky. Patience patience patience!!!!
+1 Reply
ForceFollower justatrader
I agree. Here's the best of bearish scenarios, I guess:

+1 Reply
A very good question in the title. Just as others expect (http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/technically-speaking/2014/06/12/), a retest of 0.87 is quite probable. There's been a strong element of surprise in what has happened here.
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