ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Short

Pending Short NZD/USD at 0.860X, possible head and shoulder

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
155 11 3
From a short term perspective, there's a possible head and shoulder scenario for pending shorts at 0.860X for NZD/USD             . However, from a long term perspective, I've had a short bias for some time now. Refer to my analysis earlier this month:

Pending Short NZD/USD in High 0.85XX Region

Pending Short NZD/USD 0.857X via Creative Counting


As per my previous analysis, it's totally possible for price to continue moving up to the high 0.86XX region for more short opportunities (I still have pending shorts that never got hit).

As far as targets goes, the first target is the mid to high 0.83XX region, where I'm sure there's an abundant number of bulls waiting to get in (especially those that missed out on the recent upswing). No point in speculating further until price has reacted to this region, e.g., it could bounce as stated based on the bulls or just tank through it. When the time comes, I'll post an updated analysis.

PS: I already shorted once before, from 0.8600 to 0.8535 and on the flip side, I longed from 0.8515 to 0.8540 as well.
ForceFollower
2 years ago
Now that I've taken profit at the alternate high level, I am watching it and I can see no signs no weakness. My strategy doesn't even allow me to think about going short a market in such a condition. However, if I were you, I wouldn't be going short at this point either. If you think it's head & shoulders, then bear in mind, looks can be deceiving.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Considering my long term short bias and the fact that I've already caught 90 pips so far, I have no problems building a short position from here. Head and shoulder is only the short term perspective after all, you'll recall my 'ultimate sell level' (the term you used) is at the 0.866X region, where my big sells are waiting (didn't get hit last time around).
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I got out break even, trade balance coming out any minute now.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Trading balance beat forecasts by 200M, so NZD/USD should go up. I'll be waiting in the 0.866X region with my pending shorts.
Short NZD/USD between 138 and 161.8 fib levels
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Wow, just realized we have a pinbar/gravestone doji on weekly chart:
snapshot
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
Honestly, currently I'm not interested in this pair. Unless it goes up very soon, I'll be waiting to enter long at .844. Maybe at .8514 as well, if it holds firmly enough.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Yea, I'm a bit surprised that price didn't spike up, I'm still waiting to fill my shorts up there =/.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Well, it went up, which has piqued my interest once again... :-)
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
I slept in again but it's not too late to mention this, price may overshoot to 0.8720 based on the following chart. With this possible scenario, I've only filled 50% of my short position so far, saving the remaining 50% to short above 0.87XX.

NZD/USD may overshoot to 0.8720 before dropping
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
For the purposes of this trade only, I've decided to apply proper money management on my tracking account to maximize the full potential of profits (and losses) should this trade take form. Also, something else worth mentioning, if it doesn't up above 0.87, I'll probably set up some sell stops on the way down to add to my position.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
0.8740 is another possible level based on long term upward trend line:
0.8740 is another possible level
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