Things did not turn so well in Asia this weekend, if we consider lackluster results coming out of China. In Forex currencies, this should translate into bearish pressures over currencies whose economies are net export dependent relative to mainland China, namely AUD and NZD.
Yet, looking at the AUDNZD cross, the question is quite clear: Which direction would this pair take, considering their tethered dependence on the broad Asian market?
The answer to this question might come from their respective central banks.
Recently, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens mentioned that his views on the present high currency rate remains unchanged from comments he had made back in December 2013, and now states that "$0.85 would be closer to the mark than $0.95".
In contrast, RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler more than hinted at a rate hike, saying: ""It is becoming unnecessary to maintain the current degree of monetary stimulus" in late December 2013. In fact, more recently, he stated that "The Bank expects to start this adjustment soon."
Could this hint be any more explicit?
For the Forex pair, this would have the effect of a net BEARISH pressure, which really falls in line with the predictive analysis and forecasting we produced earlier - See the AUDNZD chart here: tradingview.com/v/pMU3TCeA/
Now, looking at the NZDUSD chart on its own, any cash rate increase from RBNZ is expected to push this pair up, and from a technical standpoint, one has now to wonder: To what heights?
TECHNICALS:
As of today (08 MAR 2014), our price-independent, fundamentally-ignorant predictive and forecasting system has favored a BULLISH upturn already, churning out the following targets:
1 - One moderate-probability target: "TG-1 = 0.85950 - 08 MAR 14"
2 - One low-probability target, TG-2 = 0.86656 - 08 MAR 14"
and
3 - One distant TG-Hi = 0.94565 - 08 MAR 14, with a probability that remains quite low at this point.
PATTERN ANALYSIS:
The pattern trader might already recognize that the historical structure high offers a handle for a potential Butterfly as its Point-X, with 1.414 x XA lining up closely to our "TG-Hi = 0.94565 - 08 MAR 14" loftiest target. A dashed line from Point-A also suggests a median momental line, pacing a wounding price around it during its potential ascent.
A lower target sits down at TG-Lo = 0.57337 representing a potential Janus Pattern, which would potential come to existence if and only if TG-Hi = 0.94565 - 08 MAR 14 got hit. So, we'll keep it ignored in grey for now, but for the record.
PS: If you liked the analysis, feel free to give it a "Thumb Up" and pass of a friendly referral to friends interested in occult market mathematics and hidden geometries. All targets generated are defined by non-price means, and confirmed by either proprietary patterns (Euclid, Janus, Great White, Deep Shark), or other well known patterns. However, we concentrate mainly on Shark, 5-0 and occasional Bats, to complement our predictive analysis and forecasting - Cheers, David Alcindor.
----------------------------------------------------- Get signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter Alias: @4xForecaster -----------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
Comments
4xForecaster
⋅
* * * Change was made to a typo: Erroneous "RBNA" corrected to "RBNZ" in the title - It could not be changed in any other way than having to retype the entire content, title and text * * *
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Chart was re-posted, hence produced a different URL:
- tradingview.com/v/8oxuzed6/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------
In all fairness, I am posting both charts, so as to reflect the discussion content herein. However, further analysis and comments will be applied to above URL'ed chart.
Thank you for the feedback and comments, they are always appreciated and help me refine or rescind a position if I find myself erring in wild tangents. However, for the time being, fundamental and technical comments remain unchanged.
Cheers,
David Alcindor, MOD
MesbahRubel
⋅
3rd class analysis...China has huge impact on NZD...don't know why you ppl post this kind of dump technical chart
4xForecaster
⋅
@MesbahRubel - Appreciate your input here, However, this is a WEEKLY chart, and while an interim decline is anticipated, the analysis is also looking at a much broadly inclusive fundamental picture.
Indeed, I clearly stated that both NZD and AUD are tightly dependent on China. However, RBNZ has made repeated comments back in December and January about "imminent rate increases", and the analysis was taking this potential scenario into account.
The analysis here is based solely on that fundamental news, which may or may not play as a significant backstop against the recent bearish (and yes, bearishly impacting upon NZD too) Chinese data.
David Alcindor
ericdhammond
⋅
@MesbahRubel. I personally never appreciate comments like yours. Can you please post a chart showing your analysis and enlighten us all?
4xForecaster
⋅
OVERALL:
As mentioned above, the system favors further rallying, and in the context of a deteriorating Chinese data, NZD will need to look at internal economic pressures to justify the "imminent rate hike" which the news has been referring to since last December 2013, or a significant deterioration in the US market, prompting a hesitant Fed to revise its recent easing reversal stance.
The technicals depend on advanced pattern projections of a potential Butterfly developing its last CD impulse leg with a completion level in line with "TG-Hi = 0.94565 - 08 MAR 14", and corroborating with a separate predictive analysis and forecasting system.
PS: If you liked the analysis, feel free to give it a "Thumb Up" and pass of a friendly referral to friends interested in occult market mathematics and hidden geometries. All targets generated are defined by non-price means, and confirmed by either proprietary patterns (Euclid, Janus, Great White, Deep Shark), or other well known patterns. However, we concentrate mainly on Shark, 5-0 and occasional Bats, to complement our predictive analysis and forecasting - Cheers, David Alcindor.
-----------------------------------------------------
Get signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter
Alias: @4xForecaster -----------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Chart was re-posted, hence produced a different URL:
- tradingview.com/v/8oxuzed6/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
In all fairness, I am posting both charts, so as to reflect the discussion content herein. However, further analysis and comments will be applied to above URL'ed chart.
Thank you for the feedback and comments, they are always appreciated and help me refine or rescind a position if I find myself erring in wild tangents. However, for the time being, fundamental and technical comments remain unchanged.
Cheers,
David Alcindor, MOD