I propose yu very simple trend-indication - stoch. Look at the chart - and yu will understand everything. The only thing yu might match - I cant predict the levels of the future moving. But this is not very important to my mind.
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After all it may still work. We must wait for 2-3 hours - out of market - if yu feal danger.
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Now we'll see how it moves donw. If strong down - the model still works. We shall rich day-low or lower - today or tomorrow, then.