NZDUSD - Let's Begin with 2016

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
844 26 13
Greeting Fellow Traders!

First and foremost, Happy New Year!

NZDUSD             has formed a bullish triangle after breaking the bearish strength trend line - It has also maintained it's current bullish strength in the process. I will be looking for Buys immediately to start the new year off (provided there are little to no gaps in price) - Confirmation will come with a close above the triangle pictured.

As long as we stay above the solid blue line (the weekly bearish strength) you should remain bullish for the near term - even more so that we stay above the current bullish strength pictured. Both of those together and there is no reason to be looking for 1-4 hour sells without associating them with high risk.

Targets for bullish moves right now will sit between .69 and .71. Should we reach .71000 area I'll make another post looking for selling opportunities. This is the maximum level of the current overall bullish strength and would furthermore confirm the weekly outlook that NZDUSD             is actually preparing for a sharp bearish move soon™

A close below the overall bullish strength trend line pictured is a very good reason to be short. Anything in between the two is a little bit of a grey area at the current moment.

To help you visualize the current daily outlook here's the chart with expectations

If you have questions or comments, please I encourage them. Let's make everyone a successful trader this year! Don't forget to Like/Follow/Comment!
Comment: Confirmation of the break as pictured above never occurred and we sold off tremendously overnight - Bears are largely favored now - Expectations for seeing .69-.71 anytime soon now are very low. This should carry over to pairs like EURNZD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD where bullish trends are expected to resume on a larger scale.
Comment: New Analysis - Bears are favored
I wouldn't enter this trade in the 5th day of the bear move.
Please refer to my newest analysis for NZDUSD - While it may seem unlikely that pressure in one direction might falter at least momentarily due to consecutive days in a row....we'd only have to look at a chart history to see that this happens many times across all pairs all the time. NZDUSD I expect to hit .6590 area before making it's final move for the week, a close below a very key technical level, or some bulls showing their face
+1 Reply
i hope bullish will resume but i dont think any time soon near in the future my friend it can form the same formation as i posted on EURUSD pair
Synapse GoodLuckbabe
It's similar but it's really not the same pattern, Wedges and Flags are similar, but not the same. I wouldn't recommend anyone to be very bullish with NZDUSD especially in the next 24 hours of trading. I already commented that bears are now highly favored. Look closely at the NZD and AUD pairs, we're looking to finish the day on a continuation note. Market's literally just reinforced that strength 44-14 minutes ago
Thanks for sharing this well-built idea. However, semilog scale tells a lot much different story. There, the "bearish strength trendline" hasn't yet been broken, which invalidates the entire idea when looked at that way.
Thanks for commenting Csys, I'm not familiar with semilog scale for trading, could you post a chart to explain further?
Csys Synapse
I don't have a readily available analysis for this pair. But let me reconstruct the TL you draw here in the semilog scale. This is how it looks like:

And this is the same TL drawn in the arithmetic scale:

Personally, I always use a semilog scale for better reliability. Moreover, I think the breaking of the TL cannot be relied even in the arithmetic scale because of the low volume of the last 5 days.
+1 Reply
Thanks for sharing/explaining - I've always used the arithmetic scale, will keep an eye on log scale for this move.
There is a long debate on arithmetic versus log scale charts.

On the arithmetic scale, the trend line is designed to extrapolate support and resistance levels.

On the log scale, the trend line is used for the purpose of slope and rate of change of the price.

When log scales are used, the support and/or resistance points in channels are often skewed.

FX tends to move in channels. Be careful
+1 Reply
Yep volume is also an indicator only a clear break up and consolidation will show the bulls strengths which shows to me not possible I was also bullish on this pair as we can see it's performance in last couple weeks but in last couple of days it is losing momentum on this crucial point any way let see which way it will go
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