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Long

NZDUSD - Let's Begin with 2016

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
844 26 12
a year ago
Greeting Fellow Traders!

First and foremost, Happy New Year!

NZDUSD             has formed a bullish triangle after breaking the bearish strength trend line - It has also maintained it's current bullish strength in the process. I will be looking for Buys immediately to start the new year off (provided there are little to no gaps in price) - Confirmation will come with a close above the triangle pictured.

As long as we stay above the solid blue line (the weekly bearish strength) you should remain bullish for the near term - even more so that we stay above the current bullish strength pictured. Both of those together and there is no reason to be looking for 1-4 hour sells without associating them with high risk.

Targets for bullish moves right now will sit between .69 and .71. Should we reach .71000 area I'll make another post looking for selling opportunities. This is the maximum level of the current overall bullish strength and would furthermore confirm the weekly outlook that NZDUSD             is actually preparing for a sharp bearish move soon™

A close below the overall bullish strength trend line pictured is a very good reason to be short. Anything in between the two is a little bit of a grey area at the current moment.

To help you visualize the current daily outlook here's the chart with expectations
snapshot

If you have questions or comments, please I encourage them. Let's make everyone a successful trader this year! Don't forget to Like/Follow/Comment!
11 months ago
Comment: Confirmation of the break as pictured above never occurred and we sold off tremendously overnight - Bears are largely favored now - Expectations for seeing .69-.71 anytime soon now are very low. This should carry over to pairs like EURNZD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD where bullish trends are expected to resume on a larger scale.
11 months ago
Comment:
NZDUSD - 2016 Brings the Bears
New Analysis - Bears are favored
GoodLuckbabe
11 months ago
There is no question that the price will break the weekly trend line sometime price go beyond the trend line and consolidate thgen pull back into the structure you gonna see next week the same case here if you analysis the chart with candle stick patterns then you can see very nice dogi candle with the small gap which shows to me we can see a have sell pressure in coming days.
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GoodLuckbabe GoodLuckbabe
11 months ago
On weekly chart
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GoodLuckbabe
11 months ago
snapshot
EURUSD pair pattern details on chart
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GoodLuckbabe
11 months ago
snapshot
NZDUSD details on chart
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Synapse GoodLuckbabe
11 months ago
Thank you for your comments imranafzalmughal4! While it's no secret that I'm long term bearish on NZDUSD, I don't necessarily agree with your comparison. Anything can happen right now, but outside of everything since September being part of a consolidation/correction phase for the bears. The bulls have dominated the current move. Your pin bar makes sense comparing it to the last swing high...however..that weekly/daily/4 hour close occurred outside of the weekly trend line, not within it. This is the biggest difference when comparing EURUSD to NZDUSD. As EURUSD was forming it's wedge it had on 3 separate occasions broken outside of the upper resistance but it CLOSED inside of it. The market will determine my next move but I see no reason to be short on NZDUSD until the current bullish trend strength is broken.
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prtrading GoodLuckbabe
11 months ago
I have to disagree with you on the similarities between the EUR and NZD.

The NZD posted a five wave rally off the September low, while the EUR posted a corrective wave rally off the March low.

The weekly doji on the NZD chart is troubling, however.
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GoodLuckbabe prtrading
11 months ago
that was just a rough idea
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prtrading
11 months ago
The last 4 hours of trading on Thursday made a mess of the chart.

The weekly now shows a gravestone doji top, but a break of the weekly trend line.

The daily shows a break and return to the same trend line.

The weekly shows a close just above the 40 week moving average, but the daily failed to hold the 200 day MA.

The monthly shows a pretty strong white candle and a trend line break for December.

Your bullish view is correct, but we will have to wait for Monday's close for more confirmation.
+1 Reply
Synapse prtrading
11 months ago
Thanks for the comments prtrading! It was far from just the last 4 hours of trading that made the charts look a bit sloppy. There was significantly more whipsaw type price action in the last day of trading before brokers closed for the year, which makes sense....but in general even with those whipsaws the structure was still there. As you already pointed out Monday will probably determine the short term direction.
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GoodLuckbabe Synapse
11 months ago
you are wright as you can see my first comment where i said sometimes price goes beyond the trend line and then pullback into the channel same think i am expecting here and you know very well this because you are a quite well experienced guy and i always respect you and your analysis bro.this is how i think on 4hrs chart i may be wrong bro.
BEARS CAN COME HERE AS MULTIPLE BEAR FACTORS PLAYING
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prtrading Synapse
11 months ago
Another thing to notice about the NZD is that it rallied for 3 months on bearish news.

One of the old trader's rules is that markets that rally on bearish news are not bearish.
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GoodLuckbabe prtrading
11 months ago
SHORT
weekly setup
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prtrading GoodLuckbabe
11 months ago
Here is a long term view of the NZDUSD showing a 3 wave decline from the 2011 high and the channel break out.
snapshot
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GoodLuckbabe prtrading
11 months ago
can you explain it further please really did not understand what is this
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prtrading GoodLuckbabe
11 months ago
The chart shows the weekly NZD from the post float highs in 2011.

The NZD advanced in a five wave pattern into the 2011 high and now has corrected in a three wave (ABC) pattern near the 61.8% extension of the first down wave.

NZD has broken the latest down trend channel, but we have discussed if it will hold the breakout.

The question is has the NZD ended the correction or will it continue lower to the 100% extension near .5922.
+1 Reply
Synapse prtrading
11 months ago
Great insight into EWT
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Csys
11 months ago
Thanks for sharing this well-built idea. However, semilog scale tells a lot much different story. There, the "bearish strength trendline" hasn't yet been broken, which invalidates the entire idea when looked at that way.
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Synapse Csys
11 months ago
Thanks for commenting Csys, I'm not familiar with semilog scale for trading, could you post a chart to explain further?
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Csys Synapse
11 months ago
I don't have a readily available analysis for this pair. But let me reconstruct the TL you draw here in the semilog scale. This is how it looks like:

snapshot


And this is the same TL drawn in the arithmetic scale:

snapshot


Personally, I always use a semilog scale for better reliability. Moreover, I think the breaking of the TL cannot be relied even in the arithmetic scale because of the low volume of the last 5 days.
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Synapse Csys
11 months ago
Thanks for sharing/explaining - I've always used the arithmetic scale, will keep an eye on log scale for this move.
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prtrading Csys
11 months ago
There is a long debate on arithmetic versus log scale charts.

On the arithmetic scale, the trend line is designed to extrapolate support and resistance levels.

On the log scale, the trend line is used for the purpose of slope and rate of change of the price.

When log scales are used, the support and/or resistance points in channels are often skewed.

FX tends to move in channels. Be careful
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GoodLuckbabe Csys
11 months ago
Yep volume is also an indicator only a clear break up and consolidation will show the bulls strengths which shows to me not possible I was also bullish on this pair as we can see it's performance in last couple weeks but in last couple of days it is losing momentum on this crucial point any way let see which way it will go
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GoodLuckbabe
11 months ago
i hope bullish will resume but i dont think any time soon near in the future my friend it can form the same formation as i posted on EURUSD pair
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Synapse GoodLuckbabe
11 months ago
It's similar but it's really not the same pattern, Wedges and Flags are similar, but not the same. I wouldn't recommend anyone to be very bullish with NZDUSD especially in the next 24 hours of trading. I already commented that bears are now highly favored. Look closely at the NZD and AUD pairs, we're looking to finish the day on a continuation note. Market's literally just reinforced that strength 44-14 minutes ago
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Csys
11 months ago
I wouldn't enter this trade in the 5th day of the bear move.
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Synapse Csys
11 months ago
Please refer to my newest analysis for NZDUSD - While it may seem unlikely that pressure in one direction might falter at least momentarily due to consecutive days in a row....we'd only have to look at a chart history to see that this happens many times across all pairs all the time. NZDUSD I expect to hit .6590 area before making it's final move for the week, a close below a very key technical level, or some bulls showing their face
+1 Reply
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