NZDUSD has formed a bullish triangle after breaking the bearish strength trend line - It has also maintained it's current bullish strength in the process. I will be looking for Buys immediately to start the new year off (provided there are little to no gaps in price) - Confirmation will come with a close above the triangle pictured.
As long as we stay above the solid blue line (the weekly bearish strength) you should remain bullish for the near term - even more so that we stay above the current bullish strength pictured. Both of those together and there is no reason to be looking for 1-4 hour sells without associating them with high risk.
Targets for bullish moves right now will sit between .69 and .71. Should we reach .71000 area I'll make another post looking for selling opportunities. This is the maximum level of the current overall bullish strength and would furthermore confirm the weekly outlook that NZDUSD is actually preparing for a sharp bearish move soon™
A close below the overall bullish strength trend line pictured is a very good reason to be short. Anything in between the two is a little bit of a grey area at the current moment.
To help you visualize the current daily outlook here's the chart with expectations
If you have questions or comments, please I encourage them. Let's make everyone a successful trader this year! Don't forget to Like/Follow/Comment!
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Confirmation of the break as pictured above never occurred and we sold off tremendously overnight - Bears are largely favored now - Expectations for seeing .69-.71 anytime soon now are very low. This should carry over to pairs like EURNZD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD where bullish trends are expected to resume on a larger scale.
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New Analysis - Bears are favored
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prtrading
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The last 4 hours of trading on Thursday made a mess of the chart.
The weekly now shows a gravestone doji top, but a break of the weekly trend line.
The daily shows a break and return to the same trend line.
The weekly shows a close just above the 40 week moving average, but the daily failed to hold the 200 day MA.
The monthly shows a pretty strong white candle and a trend line break for December.
Your bullish view is correct, but we will have to wait for Monday's close for more confirmation.
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Thanks for the comments prtrading! It was far from just the last 4 hours of trading that made the charts look a bit sloppy. There was significantly more whipsaw type price action in the last day of trading before brokers closed for the year, which makes sense....but in general even with those whipsaws the structure was still there. As you already pointed out Monday will probably determine the short term direction.
GoodLuckbabe
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you are wright as you can see my first comment where i said sometimes price goes beyond the trend line and then pullback into the channel same think i am expecting here and you know very well this because you are a quite well experienced guy and i always respect you and your analysis bro.this is how i think on 4hrs chart i may be wrong bro.
prtrading
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Another thing to notice about the NZD is that it rallied for 3 months on bearish news.
One of the old trader's rules is that markets that rally on bearish news are not bearish.
GoodLuckbabe
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weekly setup
prtrading
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Here is a long term view of the NZDUSD showing a 3 wave decline from the 2011 high and the channel break out.
GoodLuckbabe
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can you explain it further please really did not understand what is this
prtrading
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The chart shows the weekly NZD from the post float highs in 2011.
The NZD advanced in a five wave pattern into the 2011 high and now has corrected in a three wave (ABC) pattern near the 61.8% extension of the first down wave.
NZD has broken the latest down trend channel, but we have discussed if it will hold the breakout.
The question is has the NZD ended the correction or will it continue lower to the 100% extension near .5922.
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Great insight into EWT
Csys
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I wouldn't enter this trade in the 5th day of the bear move.
The weekly now shows a gravestone doji top, but a break of the weekly trend line.
The daily shows a break and return to the same trend line.
The weekly shows a close just above the 40 week moving average, but the daily failed to hold the 200 day MA.
The monthly shows a pretty strong white candle and a trend line break for December.
Your bullish view is correct, but we will have to wait for Monday's close for more confirmation.