Great trades across the board yesterday, shortly after those trades came to life we find ourselves with a new day an basically the same set up.
I've gone ahead and taken a look at the lower time frames and the key technical level is already being defended for further downside, we are simply waiting on a couple key things to fall into place.
1. Lower TF close below strength from .6590 low yesterday
2. 4 hour close in favor of a defended key technical level.
Likely targets and areas of major buyers are marked on the chart as we look for other levels to break so we can either continue this trend or re-analyze the outlook.
Here's a look at the 15 minute time frame as of this posting and the current strength.
Feel free to comment/follow/like.
As far as the cup and handle pattern, there is something fundamentally wrong with this perspective. The cup and handle pattern by definition is a continuation pattern, it must be preceded by an actual trend. Very similarly to the 'Head and Shoulders' pattern as a reversal indicator. I commonly see traders pointing out these reversal patterns in a ranging market, you're misunderstanding the market structure by not having an initial trend (relative to the time frame of course).
This being said, I am not oblivious to the recent market price action, but I will not be bullish on NZDUSD until we can confirm a break of that weekly trend line.
What you are perceiving as an uptrend is a ranging market, a correction for the downtrend we are already in. If we break above .68000 we are not continuing an uptrend, we are breaking the downtrend. If we break below .64000 we're continuing the downtrend. This trade was taking off the Daily and Weekly charts but used the 15 minute for entry.
You're free to speculate what you think the market is doing, I'll continue to trade with what the market is actually doing. Right now it's selling off, it literally cannot be bullish until that trend line is broken on the weekly chart. It doesn't matter how many times it gets tested or in what order, or what pattern. It MUST break to be bullish.
I don't know the future, neither do you. Trading is about risk calculation and you're going to have a hard time convincing me that your set up is valid if we begin trading below .6550. I'm prepared to be bullish if the market indicates that's where its going but the long term bears have the advantage right now.
Trading on NU is going to be up and down between .64000 and .67500 until one of the two gives out.
All that aside, I appreciate you taking the time to share an additional point of view with a chart.
The Cup n Handle was just an interesting bonus observation. I agree the biggest points of interest lie at .6750 area and the .6890 area for me, as I have Limit orders at 4 more Lots each waiting to scale into. I think at this point the break of that trend line is a foregone conclusion as far as I'm concerned. Time will tell, but the price action has already spoken.
Its great to get opposing views and charts though, thats what a good discussion is made of! Everyone can then think and choose which to go for. So thanks to vandaloc for that.