NZDUSD: Measuring the Pullback for a Structure based Short

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
We placed NZDUSD             on our radar during yesterday's Live Room session and have been tracking it ever since. I apologize in advance, but the analysis that I did on this pair is somewhat advanced             so I'm not going to attempt to duplicate what I shared with you in last night's Syndicate video. Honestly speaking it's a lot clearer on the 13 period range bar charts (as you can see in the link attached at the bottom).

Following the I.P.D.E. process that I shared with you guys on Monday, I've come to the conclusion that until shown otherwise, i want to get short Kiwi. The difficult part was determining where. Initially I had 3 killzones (with in the larger potential reversal zone) that sparked my interest but as this pair ebbs and flows, i'm starting to get a clearer idea of which zone is the one I want to keep my eye on and execute the trade if given the opportunity. To determine my killzones I've used a combination of Fibonacci retracements, extensions, inversions and harmonic moves.

I say given the opportunity because, having price action enter the zone or level isn't enough. I still need to find a reason for entry and I won't know if or when that will happen until we get there. For now all I can do is wait, watch and be ready to pull the trigger if it does.

Good luck in the markets today traders!

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Bear bat completes at .7478 also little better r/r
+1 Reply
I believe we have a bear bat under way.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes Siyabonga_Ngcobo
Not on my radar, but that can certainly be used to get short
PatStale Siyabonga_Ngcobo
charting something similar.
In my eyes (and mine only) the downward spike is not erally part of the previous downward push/impulse...more of a "glitch" following the reversal.
However I do see harmonic bearish bat formations, (https://www.tradingview.com/x/1g1pSxZf/) - though am uncomfortable with stop positions at this point.
but that is just my view
+1 Reply
Just curious what has you uncomfortable with stops PaStale?
HKM666 Akil_Stokes
Just like watching Dali painting!
PatStale Akil_Stokes
Hi Akil,
am am uncomfortable because on bat entries, I have very simple: enter at .886 if overbought (unless structure dictates otherwise) and if ATR stays where it is, i'm looking at stops 45 pips away, which means my R/R ratio is under 1.3 on the short term unit and so it does not meet my trading plan.

+1 Reply
PatStale PatStale
On this one, I will wait to see what the market does, and price action closer to the target D completion... if ATR drops, or if trading goes a little over .886 (or both) then there may be an opportunity to "improve" entry and make it a good trade. Otherwise I will have to stay out. (which does not mean that it's not a trade worth taking for someone with a different ruleset)
+1 Reply
Thank you for sharing, i always love hearing other traders opinions. Love the statement at the end too saying "just because a trade doesn't not work for me, doesn't mean it won't work for another." There are too many traders out there that believe that it's either their way or wrong. So it's refreshing
PatStale Akil_Stokes
Thank you Akil.

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