Akil_Stokes
Short

NZDUSD: Measuring the Pullback for a Structure based Short

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
We placed NZDUSD             on our radar during yesterday's Live Room session and have been tracking it ever since. I apologize in advance, but the analysis that I did on this pair is somewhat advanced so I'm not going to attempt to duplicate what I shared with you in last night's Syndicate video. Honestly speaking it's a lot clearer on the 13 period range bar charts (as you can see in the link attached at the bottom).

Following the I.P.D.E. process that I shared with you guys on Monday, I've come to the conclusion that until shown otherwise, i want to get short Kiwi. The difficult part was determining where. Initially I had 3 killzones (with in the larger potential reversal zone) that sparked my interest but as this pair ebbs and flows, i'm starting to get a clearer idea of which zone is the one I want to keep my eye on and execute the trade if given the opportunity. To determine my killzones I've used a combination of Fibonacci retracements, extensions, inversions and harmonic moves.

I say given the opportunity because, having price action enter the zone or level isn't enough. I still need to find a reason for entry and I won't know if or when that will happen until we get there. For now all I can do is wait, watch and be ready to pull the trigger if it does.

Good luck in the markets today traders!

http://tradeempowered.com/on-my-radar-kiwistructure-trading-eurjpy/
I'm so happy I met you :)
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Akil_Stokes PRO StarProsper
Why thank you
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I believe we have a bear bat under way.
snapshot
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Akil_Stokes PRO Siyabonga_Ngcobo
Not on my radar, but that can certainly be used to get short
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PatStale Siyabonga_Ngcobo
charting something similar.
In my eyes (and mine only) the downward spike is not erally part of the previous downward push/impulse...more of a "glitch" following the reversal.
However I do see harmonic bearish bat formations, (https://www.tradingview.com/x/1g1pSxZf/) - though am uncomfortable with stop positions at this point.
but that is just my view
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Just curious what has you uncomfortable with stops PaStale?
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HKM666 Akil_Stokes
Just like watching Dali painting!
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PatStale Akil_Stokes
Hi Akil,
am am uncomfortable because on bat entries, I have very simple: enter at .886 if overbought (unless structure dictates otherwise) and if ATR stays where it is, i'm looking at stops 45 pips away, which means my R/R ratio is under 1.3 on the short term unit and so it does not meet my trading plan.
snapshot



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PatStale PatStale
On this one, I will wait to see what the market does, and price action closer to the target D completion... if ATR drops, or if trading goes a little over .886 (or both) then there may be an opportunity to "improve" entry and make it a good trade. Otherwise I will have to stay out. (which does not mean that it's not a trade worth taking for someone with a different ruleset)
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Thank you for sharing, i always love hearing other traders opinions. Love the statement at the end too saying "just because a trade doesn't not work for me, doesn't mean it won't work for another." There are too many traders out there that believe that it's either their way or wrong. So it's refreshing
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PatStale Akil_Stokes
Thank you Akil.

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PatStale PatStale
here is one on my radar that does meet my plan:
snapshot

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Nice, i'm in that as well
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PatStale Akil_Stokes
Just bouncing back about traders believing it's either their way or the highway - usually they learn: the hard way !
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PatStale PatStale
For these people who believe thre is only one way, there is a "random" analogy I quite like, that stems from a line from the stand up comedian Steven Wright: The other day someone came up to me and said: "you're wearing different color socks!" I replied: "to me their they same, I go by thickness" - I find this illustrates trading perfectly.
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That is perfect, I'm going to have to borrow that
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PatStale Akil_Stokes
by all means.... please do!
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why do you use an atr-based stops? If you backtest 1,113 fibonacci level, you'll find it acts even better)
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PatStale Alexander_Nikitin
I use it because it works for me. Simple as that. but if your backtesting shows the 1.113 level works better on 15/1h/4h timeframes... please do send me your backtest data, I will happily look into it!
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Tradingview doesn't allow uploading excel files((.
Moreover, the rules of other people won't work for you if you don't test them. There's a kind of trading law: ONLY YOUR OWN RULES WORK. "Your own rules" doesn't mean the rules, that you have invented. It means the rules, that you have backtested. It may be someone's rules. But when you test it, it becomes YOUR RULE.
To find out if 1,113XA works better, you are to do your own backtesting. My data won't help you, because nobody is able to follow the rules having doubts in their workability))
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Akil_Stokes PRO Alexander_Nikitin
I don't mean to jump in on your conversation fellas, but in general the 113 fib level and ATR stops are typically in the same area, so both of you guys are probably looking at the same areas for stops 90% of the time. Just my 2 cents
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PatStale Alexander_Nikitin
Ah Good. that is exactly what I (subtly) wanted to get you to come out and say ... I got worried when you came off the plate stating "1.113" works better - as a form of universal claim. It discredited all wrote further below. As I said in the little allegory about socks... trading plans are diverse in thousands of ways, what matters is that it works for you. There isn't
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PatStale PatStale
oops, that was just the follow up to Alexander's Comment. (hit the wrong reply link) However, I welcome your jumping in Akil and value your 2 cents! In fact, I find that in fact ATR, 113 and even a 10 pip stop on the day trading timeframes are often not too far off - mechanically though I prefer the ATR to a fixed quantity stop (which allows to reflect the more recent volatility).

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I do too, I have never been a fan of a fixed amount because each pair ha sit's own personality. 10pips on the slow moving EURGBP is a lot different than 10pips on the volatile GBPJPY
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I hope, the rules you have in your trading plan are based on backtestins you have done. They are very strange)).
For example, why do you treat bats having C exceeding A valid? According to my backtests such kind of "bats" have 70 losses among 100. I agree that bat r/r allows traders to be under 50% profitability, that's why one may have very strange rules and still have rising equity curve. But still. Don't you want to have better results?
I may guess where this rule is stemming from. In "trade what you see" book, I remember the words about gartleys: "C-point can touch A-point thus forming a double top/ double bottom". Aren't your rules based on something what you have read or heard, instead of backtestings? For example, can you answer the question: how many bats among 100 are winners on eurusd H1 having B-point one pip away from 0,5XA?
Every idea should be backtested before usage. Some ideas will be discarded, some will become the rules of your trading plan. The process of backtesting never ends. Every professional trader does it. Ask Akil if he still does backtestins, and he will answer "yes". For example, on X-mas holidays he has done a backtesting of alternative cypher entries. (Akil, if you read this, agree or disagree))) What does this mean? It means that professionals know that there's very very much they don't know about the market. This knowledge makes them learn and perfect trading skills. On the other hand, novices think they know everything, that's why they don't need to learn. This is what differentiates them from professionals.
Hope, you'll find my speach useful and helpful. If you don't need help, then re-read sentences above about novices))
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PatStale Alexander_Nikitin
I'm curious... can you please ennunciate the ruleset of my trading plan?
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PatStale Alexander_Nikitin
but I agree 100%: one must continually backtest AND forward test trading strategies before using them, and I will also say that it is also VITAL that you keep a running count of all your trades to make sure that your percentages are coherent with your backtesting.
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Bear bat completes at .7478 also little better r/r
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