quantguy

NZD Battered by Strong USD, Trade Concerns

Short
FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
NZDUSD has extended its losses for the sixth day in a row, touching key levels in the 0.65’s. A strong US dollar and US/China trade concerns have both spilled over into NZD. There are many bearish signs, and if we break through the 0.65’s, there is a vacuum zone to the 0.62’s, which we haven’t seen since 2015.

At the time of this writing, NZDUSD was trading at 0.6549.

Levels from above will provide resistance, including:

0.6727 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods
0.6851 from highs and lows over the past 30 periods
0.7061 from highs and lows

Levels from below will provide support, including:

0.6547 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods

As for Technical Analysis we have the following. Volatility has narrowed a bit but may continue more before a breakout. The RSI indicator suggests that we are in a bear trend, but not oversold yet. The MACD is above the signal line, but not by too much, suggesting that we are in a bull trend which may continue. NZDUSD is below the 50 period SMA, indicating a bear trend. The ADX indicator suggests a bear trend, at 30.

We have some room until we reach lower bound of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 0.6535. We are likely to find resistance at the central moving average of the KRI at 0.6659.


Daily Scores: Bull Score: 1 Bear Score: 3 Ranging Score: 0

NZDUSD intraday seems to be ranging, clinging on for dear life at the immediate moment after taking a beating the past couple days.

Levels from above include:

0.6562 from gaps
0.6592 from sma 50
0.6650 from gaps
0.6702 from gaps
0.6721 from highs and lows over the past 100 periods

Levels from below include:

0.6542 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods

Technical analysis for NZDUSD intraday is as follows. Volatility has consolidated slightly. The RSI indicator suggests that we are in a bear trend, but not oversold yet. The MACD suggests that we are in a bullish phase but not overbought yet. NZDUSD intraday is under the 50 period SMA, which is currently at 0.6592, indicating bearishness. Additionally, NZDUSD intraday is below the 100 period SMA, which indicates a bear trend, but not oversold yet. Finally, the 50 period SMA is about on par with the 100 period SMA which suggests we are ranging. The ADX indicator, at a value of 37 observes a modest bear trend.

We are below the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 0.6571, and fairly close to it. If we lose momentum, we'll have support from the lower bound of the KRI at 0.6524.


Intraday Scores: Bull Score: 1 Bear Score: 4 Ranging Score: 1

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