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Whipsaws on NZD/USD interim upswings signal bearish potential

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
177 0 3
Weekly analysis: Despite the breach of channel line resistance at 0.6723, "Shooting star and Gravestone doji" patterns occur at peaks of 0.6722 and 0.6828 respectively to evidence further weakness.

More notably, it is observed that whipsaws on weekly price behavior (see grey shaded areas), the price curve lingering 21DMA and trend line , could not sustain the breakout, as a result it doesn't seem to sustain as stated earlier.

Volumes are mammoth on every price declines, so it is deemed as a conformity to the bearish trend as dipping price on a rising volume justifies the momentum of selling pressures.

This would mean that ongoing bear run is mightier than short-term rallies.

As per our last post sharp gravestone doji was traced out at 0.6828 levels where it had rejected a resistance at 0.6883 levels, previous to which one more gravestone occurred exactly hanging channel resistance at 0.6722 levels, these two bearish indications have caused prices to slip below 21DMA on daily terms.

RSI converging the ongoing price dips at 40.8212 levels, while %D line crossover on slow stochastic curve is seen near oversold zone.

The risk bias to antipodean currencies remains firmly to the downside in 2016.

Well, long-term investors don't get bull trapped in this pair as it is clearly dipping within a southward channel that has moved way below 21DMA.

Trading tips: As it has opened today to break supports below 0.6475 but hovering around the same levels, we could foresee the next strong levels of support only at 0.6262.

One can initiate fresh shorts at current levels keeping 0.6575 as strict stop loss for the target of 150 to 200 pips.

We can eye on further dips on intraday terms as the long term downtrend to resume back again. The trade idea would be good to buy ATM binary puts on rallies for targets of 30-35 pips.

Hence, we are bearish on NZD for 2016 and forecast NZD/USD             at 0.59 by Q1 of 2016 and 0.61 by Q4 of 2016.
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