O put in a double bottom today. This is usually a highly reliable bullish pattern, but O is in a very steep downtrend on longer timeframes, so this might be an exception.
Instead of trading the short-term pattern, I hope that it asserts itself, leading to a better entry for a short position. If O were to reach T2 at 54.93, it could be expected to close the opening gap from last Friday (2023-09-15) at 55.05. In that range I would pick my short entry.
TL;DR: No trade for now, but a recovery towards the 54s would bring up a short entry for me.
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*...a recovery towards the HIGH 54s... Apologies for the missing qualifier. I hope it was clear from context, but I want to correct it just to be sure.
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The double bottom got within a few cents of SL at 53.68. On the 5 minute chart, O's double bottoms have a 71% chance of reaching T1 and a profit factor of almost 15. In only 4 of 14 previous occurrences has the stop loss been hit. Nevertheless, it looks like this time might be different. If so, I'll wait for a different setup on O.
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I made my previous update a comment. D-oh! Regardless, the double bottom is now officially busted, as NYSE:O just gapped right below that bottom level. As frustrating as that is, I won't chase this short opportunity.
O turned south hard the moment the Fed decision and dot plot were published. A hawkish pause that failed to acknowledge the fragile state of the economy, and raised fear of a policy error that will lead to an entrenched recession before the Fed is ready to react. Tomorrow will bring the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for August. While Jerome Powell still waxes lyrical about the strength of the economy using his favored lagging indicators like the JOLTS index or prices, here's what the headlines for the last 11 months of leading indicators looked like:
imgur.com/a/yDT5ouV