Orion S.A.| OEC | Long at $5.75

Oct 21, 2025

Orion OEC : Another chemicals company in the dumps, but is it justified - long-term?

Technical Analysis

• Price fell through my "crash" simple moving average zone (green lines). The last time this happened the price moved down to my "major crash" zone (gray lines) and subsequently rallied to a 4x investment 1.5 years later. Not to say that same trajectory will happen, but this company (like all chemical companies) are historically cyclical. The price may continue to drop into the $3's in the near-term and complete the "major crash" touch, but a longer-term outlook is likely to generate positive returns... likely...

Growth

• A bad 2025, but beyond that, projections show growth in earnings and revenue through 2027: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-OEC/financials-earnings/?earnings-period=FY&revenues-period=FY

Fair Value and Health[\b]

• Fair value: $8.30
• Tangible Fair Value: $6.58
• Company cut its 2025 guidance due to softer demand and shifted focus to free cash flow generation.
• Debt-to-equity: 2.19x (high)

Action

• While this is mostly a technical analysis play, there are so many opportunities right now with chemical companies. The tape beyond 2025 is likely to be positive and those who can stomach the near-term risks (i.e. $3's) may do well long-term. But there are better plays out there for the impatient.

Targets into 2028

1. $6.60 (+14.8%)
2. $9.00 (+56.5%)

Feb 2

Trade active

Target #1 reached resulting in a +14.8% gain.