Wolfe Wave Pending; Model Targets 1063.34 | #elliottwave $SPX


I would like to consider the possibility that the SP500             Index might carve out a higher high, based on a set of technical conditions I will define below.


First and foremost, the Predictive/Forecasting Model I use in the foreground of my analysis has defined a probable bullish target, namely:

- TG-Hix = 1063.34 - 12 OCT 2015 (For those intrigued by numeral plays, you might perhaps enjoy the mathematical relationship of this relative to the fractional period)

This target is a qualitative target, or Qual-Target, which not only represents the highest allowable target by the Predictive/Forecasting Model, by also by its nature will tend to impose a reversal - not just retracement - as a counter-force against price.


Now, looking at the general gist of price action in terms of Elliott Wave count, I have ascribed three degrees of scale to this monthly chart:

1 - A Cycle degree, denoted by the tail-end of a large multi-year bullish impulse, denoted by circled points , and (here using the brackets to indicated a circle)

2 - An Intermediate degree denoted by the last bullish impulse in parenthesed points (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5), whereby point (3) carved the historical top and the reactive low in point (4) remains a tentative structure low, likely expressing the beginning of a zig-zag based on its initial reactive, counter-trend impulse (Note: a ZZ is the only correction expressing its initial leg in a 5-wave             form). Point (5) is thus pending.

3 - A Minor degree denoted by a completed impulse of internal minor points 1-2-3-4-5 of intermediate wave (3).

Note also that as a general rule, an extended 3rd wave is associated with an equality rule, relating Wave-1 and Wave-5 such that the two are equal in height (here, 237.42 points), such that Intermediate wave-5 is expected to reach 1044.87.


A 5-point geometry is nearing its entire cycle, expressed by Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave , where convergence of 1-3 and 2-4 Lines define a 1-4 Line, also known as the "Target Line" - This TL remains pending and quite proximal to a potential rallying.


First, let's propose that the recent Intermediate Wave 5 and Intermediate wave 4 hold the following Fibonacci relationship, such that:

Intermediate Wave 5 = 1.618 x Intermediate Wave-4 = 1035.49.

This Fibonacci based target (which is one that is quite standard and typically anticipated when relating these waves) comes near-alignment to above Predictive/Forecasting Model = 1063.34, and in even closer alignment with the equality-based intermediate wave-5 = 1035.49.


Whereas the Predictive/Forecasting Model stands as an independent element in the analysis, it is interesting to note that there is compelling evidence which can be made here to expect not only further advance in the SP-500             Index, but also a probable reversal at the 1035.49/1044.87/1063.34 cluster.

To be followed.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: http://www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster

Comment: 17 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Moving on up as forecast from this past October 2015:


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
David Alcindor
Alias: 4xForecaster

FREE Strategies:
- http://bit.ly/4xForecaster-FreeLessons

CROW Signal Service:
- http://www.MarketPredictiveAnalysis.com

RECENT Results:
- bit.ly/4xForecaster-Hits
12 OCT 2015 - Tech-Note:

Note also that, aside from a RSI remaining well in the positive territory its corresponding position marks a retracement of intermediate wave (4) into the origination-tip of its one-lesser degree minor wave 4. This is a known EW rule of temporary respite in advancing price action:

This too should be brought into consideration of the overall analysis.

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
So, what's the FOREX implication of this proposed continuation into the bullish target?

As SP-500 index and $USDJPY have tended to walk into pace with one another, then consider that $USD will likely carry its own index to loftier levels as well, thus affecting the major pairs accordingly.

Following is $USDJPY 4-hour chart, offering a potential mechanism of ascent to levels shown in the chart:

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
ADDENDUM-2 - Tech-Note:

Here is a $SPX chart I have posted last February 14th, 2015, in which a similar higher target was defined using the same Predictive/Forecasting Model, defining the top at 2240.46 (here too, notice the numerical play if you are into it):

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Thanks for sharing David!
12 OCT 2015 - ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

What I have note pointed out in the chart in terms of supportive Fibonacci-based evidence, is that cycle wave-5 (i.e.: circled 5) can be expressed in relation to cycle wave-4 such that:

Cycle Wave-5 = 1.414 x Cycle Wave-4 = 1065.42.

Hence, the overall cluster becomes even tighter via the support of this expression, such that:

1035.49 ~ 1044.87 ~ 1063.34 ~ 1065.42


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out