929 27 10
OIH             36.98 last: 41 target, 34.50 stop.
With a reversal in the price of crude oil             there is finally an identifiable bottom in the price of oil             service stocks. Look for an advance of 10% in the next 6 weeks. 2% declines can be a place to enter positions during the advance.

Note the regression channel trend down has been violated.
Note the support zone from the lowest price range last fall.
Note the Head & Shoulders reversal pattern.

Cheers: Technical Tim, Tues             , July 17, 2012 4:58PM EST
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Great work Tim, The value of looking at your charts and your analysis is really first class and inspiring. IA big part of my trading plan is inter market evaluations and comparisons. It really has helped me progress and get in and out of trades in a profitable way of course with other tools. I know everybody has there own type of personality and there trading style. Thanks for being humble enough to share your insight with others. I think I speak for many of the people on this site as well. I never really saw much profitable trades as far as my plan goes until I started focusing on "swing trade". It was also a big part of beginning to see some winning trades. What type of trader do you consider yourself? Since I noticed you you are very knowledgeable I am very curious as to what helped you take your talents from good trader to elite. Patience,money management, risk tolerance is very crucial for success, but what else can you to your attribute to your success? A main curiosity of mine is the success and approach you take to your day trades. I have a descent amount of success, but the approach I take take is suited for longer trades(A couple of days to a couple of weeks) and never made a profit until I had the discipline enough to go with the longer time frame setups.Just picking your brain and please if you have any reading recommendations I would appreciate it. I have
read many books but when I started to trade the first book I read was Prechter's Elliott Wave Analysis and from there became a big fan of Robert Miner and once I started reading John Murphy's books I was blown away about how much I learned but also how much I did not know. Any comments would be Highly appreciated. From time to to time I would Like to publish some detailed charts with longer term forecast based on time and price and methodology I used to get there as well and would love feed back and critique and learn approaches you take. I really am very pleased at the results I have made in trading and the money I am starting to make but that is not the only reason I trade and lost tens of thousands before I started becoming successful. I am just really Intrigued with the markets the correlations and everything in between. If you have read this far Thanks, the true fact is books are great but hearing from people with the same interest is better. I have built a few relationships with some pretty insightful people like Todd Gordon at Aspen Trading and it blows me away how most traders even many really successful individuals are so generous with there time and don't usually see that in most other fields. Thanks again, Cheers.
+1. Thank you Tim!
+1 Reply
Thanks dimes. I am so thankful for your comments. I am glad I am finally reading them now, even though it is 21 months later. I could type up a summary of my trading history to show how long it has taken me to learn the important concepts and how to figure out myself. Everyone is different, that's for sure. There is no one right way to trade. I'd like to design a trading course to help people find the right indicators to match their personality and the right stop-loss amounts and a perfect way to track trades and positions so you follow your trading game plan and your risk management. With all of that said, my favorite books of all time:
1. I started out with Martin Pring's book on technical analysis and loved it.
2. I then read everything I could and can't remember the order of them all: Contrary Investing by Richard Band. Reminicenses of a Stock Operator by Jesse Livermore.... Market Wizards by Jack Schwager (and the rest). Dr. Van K. Tharp and IITM and all of his seminars which now are trading books. Elliott Wave was in there too, followed Prechter, Miner, Neely and studied under Neely for years. He's the brightest, smartest and best, by far. His accuracy is unreal. I started in Market Profile in 1988 on the floor of the CBOT just visiting a friend for a few days. Since then, that is my favorite method devised through my own experience and observation of how it works. I've been working in the industry since 1988 and trading and investing since 1986. I've made every error in the book, so perhaps I too can write a book about it. The market profile is the best, simplest and most powerful way to look at the market of all of the things I have found so far. As for risk management, read everything you can from Tharp. Risk is everything. You will see that in Schwager's book too in all of his wizard's books. One of those books ought to be required reading for anyone trading. My hook into trading was making a huge profit in 1987 and then took the advice of my father to not sell in the summer of 1987 since I would have had to pay huge capital gains taxes. The stock market crash happened while I was off traveling in Europe and on a flight home across the Atlantic that Monday, October 19th. My gains disappeared but the lessons learned were infinite. And it turned out my father had sold most of his stocks that summer. I didn't find that out until 1999 after he passed away. I learned you have to know yourself and be open to learning new things, but decide for yourself and don't blame others, in any way, for anything that happens. Take responsibility and then the results are yours. Trade well and thanks for the reply (from 21 months ago). Tim
Tim thanks for sharing your ideas, this trade is working out well for me....
I'm very glad. Thanks for sharing your success.
Good trade
This is close enough to the target to walk away. There was a nice 2% setback during the rally to enter more also for those that missed the initial entry. There is a stock in the group NFX that has lagged this move in OIH so I am doing some work to see about shorting OIH and going long the laggards. Stay tuned! Cheers. Tim 9:46AM EST Monday, July 30, 2012
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