The oil index
has had a solid rally this year from the lows in February around the 45 level and has rallied 30% to the 58 level where there now is a double-top pattern. The trendline
is a bit steep, but it is broken and I'm looking at two trendlines
that move up at between 50% speed and 38.2% speed from the low and provide support down around the 53 level, a mere 6% drop seems imminent for the OIH
over the ensuing 3 months.
Earlier this year, in the spring, I was looking for relative outperformance of the OIH
to the S&P500
, so now that it has outperformed and provided a decent return over the past 3-4 months, it would seem logical to reduce holdings or at least sell calls (at the money) against long term positions.
Note the other charts I have published on OIH
Tim 12:09PM EST 7/28/2014 56.34 -0.51 last