|Symmetrical Triangle| Squeeze in Crude Oil

Jun 22

Crude oil is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, a classic squeeze formation with price compressed into a tight range. Symmetrical triangles typically act as continuation patterns, favoring the prevailing trend, and in this case, on the daily chart, the trend is well established: a bullish trend with high volume. As the dominant trend is clearly bullish, and volume has remained relatively high throughout the consolidation, it supports furthermore the potential for continuation to the upside.

On the Bollinger band the squeeze is more visible, and suggests diminishing volatility, which is often followed by expansion. Unlike earlier price action before consolidation, recent sessions are exhibiting larger candlestick bodies accompanied by pronounced wicks on both ends. Meaning adding confluence to our potential breakout. These conditions create a buildup of potential momentum in the market, exactly what fuels explosive breakouts when key levels are breached.

Though such pattern can also serve as a reversal signal when broader macro conditions shift.
But, and this is a big but, beyond the chart, the geopolitical context is intensifying. The Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate, and with the most recent reports of direct US involvement, that is the strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, the risk on crude oil is rising. The possibility of Iranian retaliation, introduces serious potential for supply disruption, as any military response or blockade would likely trigger a sharp spike in the price.

• This confluence of technical breakout potential and geopolitical instability makes this setup particularly potent. If we get a confirmed breakout above the triangle and a clean close above the 77–79 zone, combined with global uncertainty and potential supply shocks, could put the $84-85 target well within reach in the near term. Beyond that, should geopolitical tension escalate, oil could accelerate toward $90 or even $100.
  
  
• In short, this is a high-stakes moment. If price does break out, it won’t just be a technical move, it will ride a wave of volume, volatility, and geopolitical narrative.
  
• With all this in mind, one should be watching closely for volume confirmation, breakout structure, and any major headlines from the Middle East as the situation develops.
  

Jun 23

Trade active

It did a beautiful breakout and an expected sell off followed

Jun 24

Trade closed: stop reached